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Financial contagion, spillovers and causality in the Markov switching framework


  • Jedrzej Białkowski
  • Dobromił Serwa


In this paper, we introduce the concept of causality in the Markov switching framework into the analysis of financial inter-market dependencies. We extend the methodology of testing for financial spillovers between capital markets by explicitly defining contagion, spillovers and independence, and providing statistics to test for the existence of causality. We apply the methodology to stock index returns on the Japanese (Nikkei 225) and the Hong Kong (HSI) markets during the Asian crisis and find no evidence of contagion between the markets, but strong evidence of feedback spillovers between them.

Suggested Citation

  • Jedrzej Białkowski & Dobromił Serwa, 2005. "Financial contagion, spillovers and causality in the Markov switching framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 123-131.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:5:y:2005:i:1:p:123-131 DOI: 10.1080/14697680500117716

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Eduardo Roca & Victor Wong, 2008. "An analysis of the sensitivity of Australian superannuation funds to market movements: a Markov regime switching approach," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(7), pages 583-597.
    2. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    3. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2008. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited--Do we really need input prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1093-1109, September.
    4. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2008. "Level-ARCH short rate models with regime switching: Bivariate modeling of US and European short rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 925-948, December.
    5. Jedrzej Bialkowski & Katrin Gottschalk & Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, 2007. "Political orientation of government and stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 269-273.
    6. Vigenina, Denotes & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2004. "The individual micro-lending contract: is it a better design than joint-liability?: Evidence from Georgia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 155-176, June.
    7. Bialkowski, Jedrzej & Bohl, Martin T. & Serwa, Dobromil, 2006. "Testing for financial spillovers in calm and turbulent periods," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 397-412, July.

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