IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mmf/mmfc05/72.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Firm Leverage

Author

Listed:
  • Oleksandra Talavera

    (DIW Berlin)

  • Christopher Baum

    (Boston College)

  • Andreas Stephan

    (European University Viadrina DIW Berlin)

Abstract

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic un-certainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. We test this proposition using a panel of non{financial US firms drawn from the COM-PUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1991{2001. The estimates confirm that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of leverage. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to the inclusion of the index of leading indicators.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Oleksandra Talavera & Christopher Baum & Andreas Stephan, 2005. "Macroeconomics Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 72, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:72
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.org/mmfc05/paper72.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hubbard, R Glenn & Kashyap, Anil K, 1992. "Internal Net Worth and the Investment Process: An Application to U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 506-534, June.
    2. Nicolas Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    3. Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
    4. Johnson, Shane A., 1997. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Corporate Debt Ownership Structure," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(01), pages 47-69, March.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach, 1985. "Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage," NBER Chapters,in: Corporate Capital Structures in the United States, pages 301-324 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bruno Biais & Catherine Casamatta, 1999. "Optimal Leverage and Aggregate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1291-1323, August.
    7. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    8. Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1999. "Investment: Fundamentals and Finance," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1998, volume 13, pages 223-274 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 69, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Bo, Hong, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Uncertainty and Firm Investment," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
    12. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    13. Hong Bo & Robert Lensin, 2005. "Is the Investment-Uncertainty Relationship Nonlinear? An Empirical Analysis for the Netherlands," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(286), pages 307-331, May.
    14. Andrew Blake, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    15. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    16. Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005. "Investment and Uncertainty in the G7," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
    17. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    18. R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K. Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1993. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kozhan, Roman, 2006. "Multiple Priors And No-Transaction Region," Working Paper Series 2006,4, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
    2. Christopher Baum & Chi Wan, 2010. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and credit default swap spreads," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1163-1171.
    3. Badunenko, Oleg & Fritsch, Michael & Stephan, Andreas, 2008. "Allocative efficiency measurement revisited--Do we really need input prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1093-1109, September.
    4. Jedrzej Bialkowski & Katrin Gottschalk & Tomasz Piotr Wisniewski, 2007. "Political orientation of government and stock market returns," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 3(4), pages 269-273.
    5. Vigenina, Denotes & Kritikos, Alexander S., 2004. "The individual micro-lending contract: is it a better design than joint-liability?: Evidence from Georgia," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 155-176, June.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • D92 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Intertemporal Firm Choice, Investment, Capacity, and Financing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc05:72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.essex.ac.uk/afm/mmf/index.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.