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The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non–Financial Firms

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  • Christopher F. Baum

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  • Mustafa Caglayan
  • Neslihan Ozkan
  • Oleksandr Talavera

Abstract

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on non–financial firms’ cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash buffer–stock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the cross–sectional distribution of firms’ cash–to–asset ratios to narrow. We test this prediction on a panel of non–financial firms drawn from the annual COMPUSTAT database covering the period 1970–2000, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms behave more homogeneously. Our results are shown to be robust to the inclusion of the levels of several macroeconomic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non–Financial Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:04/19
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    File URL: http://www.le.ac.uk/economics/research/RePEc/lec/leecon/dp04-19.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christopher F Baum & Mark E. Schaffer & Steven Stillman, 2003. "Instrumental variables and GMM: Estimation and testing," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 3(1), pages 1-31, March.
    2. Dittmar, Amy & Mahrt-Smith, Jan & Servaes, Henri, 2003. "International Corporate Governance and Corporate Cash Holdings," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(01), pages 111-133, March.
    3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 94, Society for Computational Economics.
    4. Christopher F Baum & Sylvia Hristakeva, 2001. "DENTON: Stata module to interpolate a flow or stock series from low-frequency totals via proportional Denton method," Statistical Software Components S422501, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 17 Jul 2014.
    5. Jacob A. Frenkel & Boyan Jovanovic, 1980. "On Transactions and Precautionary Demand for Money," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 25-43.
    6. Ozkan, Aydin & Ozkan, Neslihan, 2004. "Corporate cash holdings: An empirical investigation of UK companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2103-2134, September.
    7. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
    8. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, August.
    9. Kim, Chang-Soo & Mauer, David C. & Sherman, Ann E., 1998. "The Determinants of Corporate Liquidity: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(03), pages 335-359, September.
    10. Edward L. Whalen, 1966. "A Rationalization of the Precautionary Demand for Cash," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(2), pages 314-324.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 443, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Stephan, Andreas & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of corporate liquidity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 833-849, September.
    3. Fernando Antonio Lucena Aiube & Edison Americo Huarsaya Tito, 2009. "Evaluating cash benefits as real options for a commodity producer in an emerging market," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 7(3), pages 361-375.
    4. Park, Sang-Min & Talavera, Oleksandr & Lutz, Stefan, 2003. "The Effects of Regional and Industry: Wide FDI Spillovers on Export of Ukrainian Firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-54, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    5. Piotr Szczepankowski, 2007. "Problems with Cash and Other Non-Operating Assets Value in the Process of Valuing Company," Contemporary Economics, University of Finance and Management in Warsaw, vol. 1(4), December.
    6. Christopher F. Baum & Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2009. "The Effects Of Uncertainty On The Leverage Of Nonfinancial Firms," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(2), pages 216-225, April.
    7. Iuliana Oana Mihai & Riana Iren Radu, 2015. "A Literature Review Of Companies Cash Holdings," Risk in Contemporary Economy, "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, pages 346-352.
    8. Andreas Stephan & Oleksandr Talavera, "undated". "Effects of macroeconomic uncertainty on leverage for US non-financial firms," German Stata Users' Group Meetings 2004 8, Stata Users Group.
    9. Erdem BaÅçi & Syed F. Mahmud & Eray M. Yucel, 2007. "Money and Productive Efficiency: Evidence from a High-Inflation Country," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(1), pages 64-73, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash holdings; macroeconomic uncertainty; panel data; time series; ARCH; non-financial firms;

    JEL classification:

    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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