IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sce/scecf4/172.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher F Baum
  • Mustafa Caglayan
  • Neslihan Ozkan

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road--map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that an increase in macroeconomic uncertainty will lead to more homogeneous behavior among banks. We test this prediction on a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the cross--sectional dispersion of banks' loan--to--asset ratios narrows, supporting our basic hypothesis. Our results are broadly similar across total loans and three major categories of bank loans, and robust to the inclusion of macroeconomic factors

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 172, Society for Computational Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://fmwww.bc.edu/ec-p/WP521.pdf
    File Function: main text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://repec.org/sce2004/up.5460.1077822034.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 309-340.
    2. Calomiris, Charles W. & Himmelberg, Charles P. & Wachtel, Paul, 1995. "Commercial paper, corporate finance, and the business cycle: a microeconomic perspective," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 203-250, June.
    3. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2006. "The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on non‐financial firms' demand for liquidity," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 15(4), pages 289-304.
    4. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    5. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    6. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1973. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 326-334, June.
    8. Adrian Pagan, 1986. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
    9. Kashyap, Anil K & Stein, Jeremy C & Wilcox, David W, 1993. "Monetary Policy and Credit Conditions: Evidence from the Composition of External Finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 78-98, March.
    10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1996. "The Financial Accelerator and the Flight to Quality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 1-15, February.
    11. Berger, Allen N. & Udell, Gregory F., 2004. "The institutional memory hypothesis and the procyclicality of bank lending behavior," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 458-495, October.
    12. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
    13. Perotti, Enrico C. & Von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2003. "Strategic Transparency and Informed Trading: Will Capital Market Integration Force Convergence of Corporate Governance?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(1), pages 61-86, March.
    14. Schiantarelli, Fabio, 1996. "Financial Constraints and Investment: Methodological Issues and International Evidence," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 12(2), pages 70-89, Summer.
    15. Anil K Kashyap & Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Credit Conditions and the Cyclical Behavior of Inventories," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(3), pages 565-592.
    16. Lown, Cara & Peristiani, Stavros, 1996. "The behavior of consumer loan rates during the 1990 credit slowdown," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1673-1694, December.
    17. Raymond H. McEvoy, 1956. "Variation In Bank Asset Portfolios," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 463-473, December.
    18. Caglayan, Mustafa & Usman, Murat, 2000. "Costly signal extraction and profit differentials in oligopolistic markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 359-363, December.
    19. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    20. Goenka, Aditya, 2003. "Informed trading and the 'leakage' of information," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 360-377, April.
    21. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
    22. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-01, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
    23. Charles J. Hadlock & Christopher M. James, 2002. "Do Banks Provide Financial Slack?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1383-1419, June.
    24. Deborah J. Lucas & Robert L. McDonald, 1992. "Bank Financing and Investment Decisions with Asymmetric Information about Loan Quality," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 23(1), pages 86-105, Spring.
    25. Evan Gatev & Philip E. Strahan, 2003. "Banks' Advantage in Hedging Liquidity Risk: Theory and Evidence from the Commercial Paper Market," NBER Working Papers 9956, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Re-examining the Transmission of Monetary Policy: What More Do a Million Observations Have to Say," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 45, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    27. Jeremy C. Stein & Anil K. Kashyap, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June.
    28. Shockley, Richard L & Thakor, Anjan V, 1997. "Bank Loan Commitment Contracts: Data, Theory, and Tests," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 517-534, November.
    29. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 1999. "Long memory or structural breaks: can either explain nonstationary real exchange rates under the current float?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 359-376, November.
    30. Cebenoyan, A. Sinan & Strahan, Philip E., 2004. "Risk management, capital structure and lending at banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 19-43, January.
    31. Christopher Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2013. "The Role Of Uncertainty In The Transmission Of Monetary Policy Effects On Bank Lending," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81(2), pages 202-225, March.
    32. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    33. Petersen, Mitchell A & Rajan, Raghuram G, 1994. "The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 3-37, March.
    34. Houston, Joel F & James, Christopher M, 2001. "Do Relationships Have Limits? Banking Relationships, Financial Constraints, and Investment," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(3), pages 347-374, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Ozkan, Neslihan, 2009. "The second moments matter: The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on the allocation of loanable funds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 87-89, February.
    2. Jaehoon Hahn & Hangyong Lee, 2009. "Financial Constraints, Debt Capacity, and the Cross‐section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(2), pages 891-921, April.
    3. Chmielewski, Tomasz, 2005. "Bank risks, risk preferences and lending," MPRA Paper 5131, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2006.
    4. Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Christopher F Baum, 2002. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior," Working Papers 2002_02, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    5. Santiago Carbó Valverde & Rafael López del Paso, 2005. "Do non-financial firms react to monetary policy actions as banks do?," ThE Papers 05/03, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    6. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    7. Hovakimian, Gayané, 2011. "Financial constraints and investment efficiency: Internal capital allocation across the business cycle," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 264-283, April.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Akbar, Saeed & Rehman, Shafiq ur & Ormrod, Phillip, 2013. "The impact of recent financial shocks on the financing and investment policies of UK private firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 59-70.
    10. Paul Mizen & Cihan Yalcin, 2006. "Monetary Policy, Corporate Financial Composition and Real Activity," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(1), pages 177-213, March.
    11. repec:dgr:rugccs:200212 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165, Elsevier.
    13. Leo De Haan & Elmer Sterken, 2006. "The impact of monetary policy on the financing behaviour of firms in the Euro area and the UK," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(5), pages 401-420.
    14. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Bank Lending," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 221-261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2002. "Bank credit in the transmission of monetary policy: A critical review of the issues and evidence," MPRA Paper 19816, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Jean-Bernard Chatelain, 2003. "Structural modelling of financial constraints on investment: where do we stand?," Chapters, in: Paul Butzen & Catherine Fuss (ed.), Firms’ Investment and Finance Decisions, chapter 2, pages 40-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Calmès, Christian & Théoret, Raymond, 2014. "Bank systemic risk and macroeconomic shocks: Canadian and U.S. evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 388-402.
    18. Chava, Sudheer & Purnanandam, Amiyatosh, 2011. "The effect of banking crisis on bank-dependent borrowers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 116-135, January.
    19. Woon Gyu Choi & Mr. Yungsan Kim, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Corporate Liquid Asset Demand," IMF Working Papers 2001/177, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Sonia Ruano & Robert M. Townsend & Jesus Saurina & Alexander Karaivanov, 2010. "No Bank, One Bank, Several Banks: Does It Matter for Investment?," 2010 Meeting Papers 669, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    21. Aissata Boubacar Moumouni, 2020. "Investment Sensitivity to Inter-enterprises Payment Deadlines," AMSE Working Papers 1938, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    bank lending; financial sector uncertainty; lending channel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf4:172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christopher F. Baum (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sceeeea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.