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The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

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  • Christopher F. Baum
  • Mustafa Caglayan
  • Neslihan Ozkan

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort banks’ allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road- map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that lower uncertainty about the return from lending should lead to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks as managers take advantage of more precise knowledge of different lending opportunities. When bank-specific differences in lending opportunities are harder to predict, we should observe less cross-sectional variation in loan-to-asset ratios. Using a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, we receive support for our hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty," Discussion Papers in Economics 04/13, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    • Handle: RePEc:lec:leecon:04/13
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank lending; financial intermediation; credit; macroeconomic; uncertainty; panel data; ARCH.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers

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