The Effects of Uncertainty on the Leverage of Non-Financial Firms
This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms' leverage and macroeconomic uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm's value maximization problem that predicts that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases the firm will decrease its optimal level of borrowing. We test this proposition using a panel of non-financial US firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1991-2001. The estimates confirm that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of leverage. Furthermore, we demonstrate that our results are robust with respect to the inclusion of the index of leading indicators.
|Date of creation:||15 Sep 2004|
|Date of revision:||27 Jul 2007|
|Publication status:||published, Economic Inquiry, 47 (2009), 216-225|
|Note:||formerly circulated as "Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Firm Leverage"|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA|
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004.
"The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non–Financial Firms,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
04/19, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
- Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2003. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 69, Society for Computational Economics.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2004. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 410, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Talavera, Oleksandr & Ozkan, Neslihan & Caglayan, Mustafa & Baum, Christopher F., 2004. "The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms," ZEW Discussion Papers 04-10, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
- Andrew Blake, 1999. "An Artificial Neural Network System of Leading Indicators," NIESR Discussion Papers 144, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
- Alan J. Auerbach, 1983.
"Real Determinants of Corporate Leverage,"
NBER Working Papers
1151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 2000. "The Differential Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in Small and Large Businesses," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 338-343, May.
- Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello & Michael S. Weisbach, 2004. "The Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1777-1804, 08.
- Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & BRUCE C. PETERSEN, 1988.
"Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment,"
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
- Love, Inessa, 2001.
"Financial development and financing constraints - international evidence from the structural investment model,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
2694, The World Bank.
- Inessa Love, 2003. "Financial Development and Financing Constraints: International Evidence from the Structural Investment Model," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 765-791, July.
- R. Glenn Hubbard & Anil K Kashyap & Toni M. Whited, 1993. "Internal Finance and Firm Investment," NBER Working Papers 4392, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991.
"Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS program to replicate Arellano-Bond 1991 dynamic panel," Statistical Software Components RTZ00169, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Joseph P. Byrne & E. Philip Davis, 2005.
"Investment and Uncertainty in the G7,"
Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv),
Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(1), pages 1-32, April.
- Simon Gilchrist & Charles Himmelberg, 1998.
"Investment, Fundamentals and Finance,"
NBER Working Papers
6652, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nicholas Bloom & Steve Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.