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Steht der deutsche Aktienmarkt unter politischem Einfluss?


  • Gottschalk, Katrin
  • Bohl, Martin T.


Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht den Zusammenhang zwischen politischen Zyklen und Aktienrenditen in Deutschland. Während sich die bis dato verfügbaren Studien über politisch bedingte Aktienmarktanomalien auf die USA konzentrieren, analysieren wir deren Existenz in deutschen Aktienrenditen. Im Gegensatz zu den empirischen Ergebnissen für die USA zeigen sich für Deutschland keine Anomalienmuster in Akteinrenditen, die sich auf rechte oder linke Bundesregierungen zurückführen lassen. In Übereinstimmungen mit den für die USA verfügbaren Evidenzen ist auch für Deutschland von einem politisch beeinflussten Wahlzyklus in Akteinrenditen auszugehen. Zudem widerlegen unsere empirischen Ergebnisse für Deutschland die Hypothese, dass sich der US-amerikanische Wahlzyklus auch auf den deutschen Aktienmarkt überträgt.

Suggested Citation

  • Gottschalk, Katrin & Bohl, Martin T., 2005. "Steht der deutsche Aktienmarkt unter politischem Einfluss?," Working Paper Series 2005,1, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), The Postgraduate Research Programme Capital Markets and Finance in the Enlarged Europe.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:euvgra:20051

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    Cited by:

    1. Elmar A. Janssen, 2014. "Do Election Results Affect the Value of Politically Connected Firms? - The Effect of the Schroeder-Merkel Change of Government on German Prime Standard Firms," Working Papers Dissertations 05, Paderborn University, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics.

    More about this item


    Kapitalmarkteffizienz; Kapitalmarktanomalien; politische Aktienmarktzyklen;

    JEL classification:

    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General


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