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Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures

Author

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  • Vítor Castro

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, and Economic Policies Research Unit (NIPE))

  • Rodrigo Martins

    (Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra and Group for Monetary and Fiscal Studies (GEMF))

Abstract

This article analyses the incidence of politically driven cycles on the functional components and sub-components of government expenditures over a group of 18 European countries during the period 1990-2012. An LSDVC estimator is employed in the empirical analysis. The results point out to the presence of political opportunism at aggregated and disaggregated levels of public expenditures, but no significant evidence of partisan or other political effects is found. The expenditure components that have proved to be more related to that behaviour are public services, health, education and social protection. These include items able to generate more visible outcomes to voters and, consequently, of increasing government’s chance of re-election.

Suggested Citation

  • Vítor Castro & Rodrigo Martins, 2016. "Politically driven cycles in fiscal policy: In depth analysis of the functional components of government expenditures," NIPE Working Papers 2/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
  • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:2/2016
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    2. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    3. Ludger Schuknecht & Holger Zemanek, 2021. "Public expenditures and the risk of social dominance," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 95-120, July.
    4. Niklas Potrafke, 2019. "Fiscal Performance of Minority Governments: New Empirical Evidence for OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 7733, CESifo.
    5. Potrafke, Niklas, 2017. "Partisan politics: The empirical evidence from OECD panel studies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 712-750.
    6. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    7. Potrafke, Niklas & Roesel, Felix, 2020. "The urban–rural gap in healthcare infrastructure: does government ideology matter?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 54(3), pages 340-351.
    8. Potrafke, Niklas, 2020. "General or central government? Empirical evidence on political cycles in budget composition using new data for OECD countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    9. Alina Daniela Vodă & Gabriela Dobrotă & Loredana Andreea Cristea, 2020. "Procyclical, Countercyclical and Acyclical Fiscal Policies," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(2), pages 1101-1108, December.
    10. Giesenow, Federico M. & de Wit, Juliette & de Haan, Jakob, 2020. "The political and institutional determinants of fiscal adjustments and expansions: Evidence for a large set of countries," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    11. Bellani, Luna & Scervini, Francesco, 2020. "Heterogeneity in preferences for redistribution and public spending: A cross-country analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    12. Jacques, Olivier & Noël, Alain, 2022. "The politics of public health investments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    13. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    14. Vitor Castro, 2016. "On the behaviour of the functional components ofgovernment expenditures during fiscal consolidations," NIPE Working Papers 11/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    15. Björn Kauder & Manuela Krause & Niklas Potrafke, 2018. "Electoral cycles in MPs’ salaries: evidence from the German states," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 25(4), pages 981-1000, August.
    16. Tavares, José & Mesquita Gabriel, José & Pereira Dos Santos, Joao, 2020. "Leave them Kids Alone! National Exams as a Political Tool," CEPR Discussion Papers 14374, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Jordi Sanjuán & Pau Rausell & Vicente Coll & Raül Abeledo, 2020. "Mayors, Using Cultural Expenditure in An Opportunistic Way Improves the Chances of Re-Election, but Do Not Do It: Revisiting Political Budget Cycles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-15, October.
    18. João Pereira dos Santos & José Tavares & José Mesquita, 2021. "Leave them kids alone! National exams as a political tool," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(3), pages 405-426, December.
    19. Tushar Bharati & Mohammad Farhad & Michael Jetter, 2023. "On the relationship between trade openness and government size," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(7), pages 2102-2133, July.
    20. Olivier Jacques & Alain Noel, 2022. "Austerity Reduces Public Health Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-02, CIRANO.
    21. Schclarek, Alfredo & Xu, Jiajun, 2022. "Exchange rate and balance of payment crisis risks in the global development finance architecture," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Expenditures; Political Cycles; Elections; Europe; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation

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