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Driving Forces Behind Changes in the Aggregate Labour Force Participation in Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Gábor Kátay

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

  • Benedek Nobilis

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple and transparent methodology for decomposing changes in the aggregate labour force participation rate over time into changes in the labour force participation behaviour of different population groups and changes in each group’s population share. Unlike traditional decomposition methods based only on demographic factors, our approach also identifies the contribution of all major factors that can account for the developments in the labour force participation such as change in the general educational level or the most important social welfare programs. An application on Hungarian labour force data shows that the selected variables explain the evolution of the participation rate quite well – especially on the long term. More specifically, our results indicate that the rising labour supply since ’97 in Hungary was principally driven by the increasing average level of education and, most importantly, the gradual tightening of the conditions of old-age retirement. The other estimated effects are also in line with our expectations. Given that the residual term not captured by the model has no visible trend but fluctuates with economic cycles, the explained part can also be interpreted as an indicator of the underlying labour supply.

Suggested Citation

  • Gábor Kátay & Benedek Nobilis, 2009. "Driving Forces Behind Changes in the Aggregate Labour Force Participation in Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2009/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2009/5
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    File URL: http://www.mnb.hu/letoltes/wp-2009-5.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gábor Kátay & Péter Benczúr & Áron Kiss & Olivér M. Rácz, 2014. "Income Taxation, Transfers and Labour Supply at the Extensive Margin," EcoMod2014 6925, EcoMod.
    2. Kamil Galuscak & Gabor Katay, 2014. "Labour Force Participation and Tax-Benefit Systems: A Cross-Country Comparative Perspective," Working Papers 2014/10, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    3. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2013. "Kiszorítják-e az idősebb munkavállalók a fiatalokat a közszférában?. Eredmények a magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emelés időszakából
      [Do older employees crowd out younger?. Evidence from Hungary in a
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 837-864.
    4. Zsombor Cseres-Gergely, 2014. "What effect does increasing the retirement age have on the employment rate older women? Empirical evidence from retirement age hikes in Hungary during the 2000s," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1403, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    5. Anderton, Robert & Aranki, Ted & Dieppe, Alistair & Elding, Catherine & Haroutunian, Stephan & Jacquinot, Pascal & Jarvis, Valerie & Labhard, Vincent & Rusinova, Desislava & Szörfi, Béla, 2014. "Potential output from a euro area perspective," Occasional Paper Series 156, European Central Bank.
    6. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor, 2015. "A 2000-es évek magyarországi nyugdíjkorhatár-emeléseinek azonnali hatása az érintett nők munkavállalására
      [The effect raising the retirement age has on the employment rate of older women. Empirical
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(6), pages 652-673.
    7. Karoly Fazekas & Peter Benczur & Almos Telegdy (ed.), 2013. "The Hungarian Labour Market 2013," The Hungarian Labour Market Yearbooks, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, number 2013, December.
    8. Lars Calmfors & Giancarlo Corsetti & John Hassler & Gilles Saint-Paul & Hans-Werner Sinn & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Ákos Valentinyi & Xavier Vives, 2012. "Chapter 5: The Hungarian Crisis," EEAG Report on the European Economy, CESifo Group Munich, vol. 0, pages 115-130, February.
    9. Gabriel Machlica, 2017. "Enhancing skills to boost growth in Hungary," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1364, OECD Publishing.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labour force participation; decomposition; demographic change; schooling; social transfers.;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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