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A new production function estimate of the euro area output gap This paper is based on a report for Eurostat: 'Real time estimation of potential output, output gap, NAIRU and Phillips curve for Euro-zone', part of the Advanced statistical and econometric techniques for the analysis of PEEIs EUROSTAT Project , December 2007

  • Matthieu Lemoine

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po, Paris, France)

  • Gian Luigi Mazzi

    (Eurostat-D1 Key Indicators for European Policies, Luxembourg, Luxembourg)

  • Paola Monperrus-Veroni

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (OFCE), Sciences Po, Paris, France)

  • Frédéric Reynes

We develop a new version of the production function (PF) approach for estimating the output gap of the euro area. Assuming a CES (constant elasticity of substitution) technology, our model does not call for any (often imprecise) measure of the capital stock and improves the estimation of the trend total factor productivity using a multivariate unobserved components model. With real-time data, we assess this approach by comparing it with the Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter and with a Cobb-Douglas PF approach with common cycle and implemented with a multivariate unobserved components model. Our new PF estimate appears highly concordant with the reference chronology of turning points and has better real-time properties than the univariate HP filter for sufficiently long time horizons. Its inflation forecasting power appears, like the other multivariate approach, less favourable than the statistical univariate method. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1157
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 29 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1-2 ()
Pages: 29-53

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:29:y:2010:i:1-2:p:29-53
DOI: 10.1002/for.1157
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001. "The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-57, CIRANO.
  2. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, December.
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  12. Arnaud Sylvain, 2008. "Part des salaires et mondialisation : une analyse econometrique pour treize pays de l'OCDE, 1970-2002," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 114, pages 93-132.
  13. Aruoba, Boragan, 2005. "Data Revisions Are Not Well-Behaved," CEPR Discussion Papers 5271, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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