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Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate

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Abstract

NAIRU and NATURAL RATE are not synonymous. NAIRU is a macro outcome of an economy with many labor markets in diverse states of excess demand and excess supply. NAIRU represents an overall balance between the inflation-increasing pressures from excess-demand markets and the inflation-decreasing pressures from excess-supply markets. The natural rate, as described by Friedman, is a feature of Walrasian market-clearing general equilibrium. While the NAIRU fits into a Keynesian model, the natural rate is an aspect of a New Classical model. The determinants of the two are theoretically different, and so are their implications for policy. The NAIRU varies from time to time as the relationships between unemployment, vacancies, and wage changes vary, and as the dispersion of excess demands and supplies across markets changes. In this decade, these developments appear to be reducing the NAIRU, in contrast to the unfavorable circumstances of the 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • James Tobin, 1997. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1150, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1150
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    File URL: http://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d11/d1150.pdf
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    1. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    2. Tobin, James, 1972. "Inflation and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(1), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Martin Neil Baily & James Tobin, 1977. "Macroeconomic Effects of Selective Public Employment and Wage Subsidies," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 8(2), pages 511-544.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alasdair Scott, 2000. "Stylised facts from output gap measures," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    2. Bozena Kaderabkova, 2016. "Development of the economic cycle on labour market in the national economy and industry of the Czech Republi," Proceedings of Business and Management Conferences 4407037, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    3. Božena Kadeřábková & Emilie Jašová, 2011. "Analýza ukazatele NAIRU na sektorové úrovni
      [Analysis of the Indicator NAIRU on the Sector Level]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(4), pages 508-525.
    4. repec:mes:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:2:p:149-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Marika Karanassou & Hector Sala & Pablo F. Salvador, 2008. "The (Ir)Relevance Of The Nru For Policy Making: The Case Of Denmark," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(3), pages 369-392, July.
    6. Salvatore D'Acunto & Sergio Destefanis & Marco Musella, 2004. "Exports, Supply Constraints and Growth: An Investigation using Regional Data," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 167-189.
    7. Emilie Ja?ová, 2016. "The effect of the psychological factor among companies onto the NAIRU and economic cycle on the labour market," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 5307026, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    8. Emilie Jašová & Božena Kaderábková, 2012. "Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 3-23.
    9. Cuéllar-Martín, Jaime & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Moral, Alfonso, 2017. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: a stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," MPRA Paper 76503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Emilie Jasova, 2014. "A Model for Estimation of NAIRU Extended by Demand Shocks and its Application to Business Cycle Analysis in the Labour Market in Hungary and Poland," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401788, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. Grant, Alan P., 2002. "Time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a revisitation of Okun's law," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-113.
    12. Pošta, 2015. "Time-Varying NAIRU and Some of Its Determinants—A Semi-Structural Approach: Evidence from Eastern European Economies," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 149-165, March.
    13. Emilie Jašová & Božena Kadeřábková & Klára Čermáková & Pavel Procházka, 2016. "Působení institucionálních faktorů na strukturální a cyklickou nezaměstnanost v zemích Visegrádské skupiny
      [Influence of Institutional Factors on Structural and Cyclical Unemployment in the Countri
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2016(1), pages 34-50.

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