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Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group


  • Emilie Jašová
  • Božena Kaderábková


This paper is aimed to map the development of the NAIRU and the business cycle in the labour market in selected transition economies. The article is focused on methods able to capture the fragile environment in the labour market and in the economy. Sources of instability, changes in development of NAIRU and estimation of changes in the labour market in the near future are the main issues discussed in this paper. The results of our analysis show that in case of economies in transition the labour market is best described by NAIRU estimated by Kalman filter and HP filter. Kalman filter succeeded in capturing the non stable environment in the labour market. Sources of instability and eventual changes in labour market can be for example the restructuring of the economy, change in nature of trade off between unemployment rate and households´ consumption deflator caused by factors exogenous to the labour market or by the global financial and economic crisis. Findings about non stable environment in past (in the Czech Republic for example years 1999-2000) can be used, under condition of anticipated expectations environment, to the support of hypothesis that the non stable environment is present in the labour market at the end of the examined period (1-3Q 2008). Kalman filter can be used also for testing of time leading between labour market development in various countries and consequently for short term prediction making. HP filter results support, according to our analysis, the hypothesis resulting from Kalman filter. Gradual reduction in unemployment gap derived by HP filter indicated a forthcoming change in business cycle phases. In one case the HP filter succeeded in predicting the business cycle phases change even sooner than the Kalman filter did.

Suggested Citation

  • Emilie Jašová & Božena Kaderábková, 2012. "Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 4, pages 3-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2012:i:4:p:3-23

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
    3. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
    4. Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0009, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    5. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    6. Thomas M. Humphrey, 1985. "The early history of the Phillips curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 17-24.
    7. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    8. James Tobin, 1997. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1150, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications


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