Comparing NAIRU and Economic Cycle from the Perspective of Labour Market in the Countries of the Visegrad Group
This paper is aimed to map the development of the NAIRU and the business cycle in the labour market in selected transition economies. The article is focused on methods able to capture the fragile environment in the labour market and in the economy. Sources of instability, changes in development of NAIRU and estimation of changes in the labour market in the near future are the main issues discussed in this paper. The results of our analysis show that in case of economies in transition the labour market is best described by NAIRU estimated by Kalman filter and HP filter. Kalman filter succeeded in capturing the non stable environment in the labour market. Sources of instability and eventual changes in labour market can be for example the restructuring of the economy, change in nature of trade off between unemployment rate and households´ consumption deflator caused by factors exogenous to the labour market or by the global financial and economic crisis. Findings about non stable environment in past (in the Czech Republic for example years 1999-2000) can be used, under condition of anticipated expectations environment, to the support of hypothesis that the non stable environment is present in the labour market at the end of the examined period (1-3Q 2008). Kalman filter can be used also for testing of time leading between labour market development in various countries and consequently for short term prediction making. HP filter results support, according to our analysis, the hypothesis resulting from Kalman filter. Gradual reduction in unemployment gap derived by HP filter indicated a forthcoming change in business cycle phases. In one case the HP filter succeeded in predicting the business cycle phases change even sooner than the Kalman filter did.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): (2012)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 3, Aksakov Str., 1040, Sofia|
Phone: (+359 2) 810 40 18
Fax: (+359 2) 988 21 08
Web page: http://www.iki.bas.bg
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001.
"Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Pete Richardson & Laurence Boone & Claude Giorno & Mara Meacci & David Rae & David Turner, 2000. "The Concept, Policy Use and Measurement of Structural Unemployment: Estimating a Time Varying NAIRU Across 21 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 250, OECD Publishing.
- Laurence Boone, 2000. "Comparing Semi-Structural Methods to Estimate Unobserved Variables: The HPMV and Kalman Filters Approaches," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 240, OECD Publishing.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
- Ángel Estrada & Ignacio Hernando & J. David López-Salido, 2000. "Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 0009, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
- Thomas M. Humphrey, 1985. "The early history of the Phillips curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 17-24.
- George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
- James Tobin, 1997. "Supply Constraints on Employment and Output: NAIRU Versus Natural Rate," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1150, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bas:econst:y:2012:i:4:p:3-23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Diana Dimitrova)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.