IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish Economy

Listed author(s):
  • Ángel Estrada

    (Banco de España)

  • Ignacio Hernando

    (Banco de España)

  • J. David López-Salido

    (Banco de España)

This paper addresses the issue of measuring the NAIRU in the Spanish economy. We implement some of the procedures proposed in the literature to estimate the NAIRU, describing their advantages and disadvantages. Our analysis shows that these alternative approaches provide significantly different point estimates of the NAIRU. Moreover, whenever some measures of the precision of the estimate are available, the degree of uncertainty is remarkable. Thus, our main conclusion is that the usefulness of the NAIRU concept as a general guideline for discussing and analyzing macroeconomic policy is very limited, given the current state of economic research on this area.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/00/Fic/dt0009e.pdf
File Function: First version, 2000
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 0009.

as
in new window

Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: 2000
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0009
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/

Web page: http://www.bde.es/bde/en/secciones/informes/Publicaciones_se/docs/
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window

  1. Coenen, Günter & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "A Small Estimated Euro Area Model with Rational Expectations and Nominal Rigidities," CEPR Discussion Papers 3574, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Maravall, Agustín & Kaiser, Regina, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  3. Bergin, Paul R. & Feenstra, Robert C., 2000. "Staggered price setting, translog preferences, and endogenous persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 657-680, June.
  4. Beatriz Rodríguez Prado, 1995. "La tasa natural de desempleo en la economía española: un intento de cuantificación," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 3, pages 133-151, Junio.
  5. Francisco GÛmez GarcÌa & Carlos Usabiaga Ib·nez, "undated". "Las estimaciones de la NAIRU: Una valoraciÛn de conjunto," Studies on the Spanish Economy 31, FEDEA.
  6. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  7. Robert J. Gordon, 1996. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 5735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Short-Term and Long-Term Trends, Seasonal Adjustment, and the Business Cycles," Working Papers 9918, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  9. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," International Finance Discussion Papers 640, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  10. Taylor, John B, 1980. "Aggregate Dynamics and Staggered Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(1), pages 1-23, February.
  11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
  14. Evans, George W. & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1993. "Information, Forecasts and Measurement of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Kevin X. D. Huang & Zheng Liu, 1998. "Staggered contracts and business cycle persistence," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  16. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. John M. Roberts, 1990. "The sources of business cycles: a monetarist interpretation," Working Paper Series / Economic Activity Section 108, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  18. Francesco Daveri & Guido Tabellini, "undated". "Unemployment, Growth and Taxation in Industrial Countries," Working Papers 122, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  19. Jinill Kim, 1998. "Monetary policy in a stochastic equilibrium model with real and nominal rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-02, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  20. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  21. Juan J. Dolado & J. David López-Salido & Juan L. Vega, 2000. "Unemployment and inflation persistence in Spain: Are there Phillips trade-offs?," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 267-291.
  22. Fabiani, Silvia & Mestre, Ricardo, 2000. "Alternative measures of the NAIRU in the euro area: estimates and assessment," Working Paper Series 0017, European Central Bank.
  23. Blanchard, Olivier & Jimeno, Juan F, 1995. "Structural Unemployment: Spain versus Portugal," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(2), pages 212-218, May.
  24. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Moore, George R, 1995. "Forward-Looking Behavior and the Stability of a Conventional Monetary Policy Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1060-1070, November.
  25. Javier Andrés & Ignacio Hernando & David López-Salido, 1998. "The Long-Run Effect of Permanent Disinflations," Working Papers 9825, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  26. P. McAdam & K. Mc Morrow, 1999. "The NAIRU Concept - Measurement uncertainties, hysteresis and economic policy role," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 136, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  27. Ana R. de Lamo & Juan J. Dolado, 1993. "Un modelo del mercado de trabajo y la restricción de oferta en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 17(1), pages 87-118, January.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0009. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.