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Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española

  • Rafael Doménech

    (Universidad de Valencia)

  • Víctor Gómez

    (Ministerio de Hacienda)

Este trabajo propone un nuevo método de descomposición del PIB en sus componentes estructural y cíclico utilizando un modelo de componentes no observables, que aprovecha la información que la tasa de desempleo y la tasa de inversión contienen sobre la posición cíclica de la economía. El modelo, que permite también recuperar una estimación de la tasa de desempleo estructural compatible con la ley de Okun, se estima por máxima verosimilitud utilizando el filtro de Kalman en el que las condiciones iniciales son parcialmente difusas, mientras que los componentes no observables se estiman utilizando un algoritmo de suavizado. (Copyright: Fundación SEPI)

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Article provided by Fundación SEPI in its journal Investigaciones Económicas.

Volume (Year): 29 (2005)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 259-288

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Handle: RePEc:iec:inveco:v:29:y:2005:i:2:p:259-288
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  1. Victor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Programs TRAMO and SEATS, Instruction for User (Beta Version: september 1996)," Working Papers 9628, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  2. Camba-Mendez, Gonzalo & Rodriguez-Palenzuela, Diego, 2003. "Assessment criteria for output gap estimates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 529-562, May.
  3. Rünstler, Gerhard, 2002. "The information content of real-time output gap estimates, an application to the euro area," Working Paper Series 0182, European Central Bank.
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  5. Thomas Laubach, 2001. "Measuring The NAIRU: Evidence From Seven Economies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 218-231, May.
  6. Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994. "Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
  7. Harvey, A.C. & Trimbur, T.M., 2001. "General Model-based Filters for Extracting Cycles and Trends in Economic Time Series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0113, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Agustín Maravall & Ana del Río, 2001. "Time Aggregation and the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 0108, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  9. Juan J. Dolado & Miguel Sebastián & Javier Vallés, 1993. "Cyclical Patterns of the Spanish Economy," Working Papers 9324, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  10. Canova, Fabio, 1993. "Detrending and Business Cycle Facts," CEPR Discussion Papers 782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Samuel Bentolila & Juan F. Jimeno, 2003. "Spanish Unemployment: The End of the Wild Ride?," CESifo Working Paper Series 940, CESifo Group Munich.
  12. Regina Kaiser & Agustín Maravall, 1999. "Estimation of the Business Cycle: a Modified Hodrick-Prescott Filter," Working Papers 9912, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  13. Marcet, Albert & Ravn, Morten O, 2004. "The HP-Filter in Cross-Country Comparisons," CEPR Discussion Papers 4244, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Robert J. Hodrick & Edward Prescott, 1981. "Post-War U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Discussion Papers 451, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  15. Gomez, Victor, 1999. "Three Equivalent Methods for Filtering Finite Nonstationary Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 109-16, January.
  16. Burnside, Craig, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A comment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 513-532, May.
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