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MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting

  • Maximo Camacho
  • Rafael Domenech

In this paper we extend the Stock and Watson’s (1991) single-index dynamic factor model in an econometric framework that has the advantage of combining information from real and financial indicators published at different frequencies and delays with respect to the period to which they refer. We find that the common factor reflects the behavior of the Spanish business cycle well and helps to estimate with high precision the regime-switching probabilities in line with business cycle phases. We also show that financial indicators are useful for forecasting output growth, particularly when certain financial variables lead the common factor. Finally, we provide a simulated real-time exercise and prove that the model is a very useful tool for the short-term analysis of the Spanish Economy.

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1021.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1021
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  1. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2008. "Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area GDP Growth," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2008-035, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  3. Tommaso Proietti & Filippo Moauro, 2004. "Dynamic Factor Analysis with Nonlinear Temporal Aggregation Constraints," Econometrics 0401003, EconWPA.
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez Quiros, 2011. "Spain‐Sting: Spain Short‐Term Indicator Of Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 79(s1), pages 594-616, 06.
  5. Rocio Alvarez & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Finite sample performance of small versus large scale dynamic factor models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1204, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," PIER Working Paper Archive 07-028, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  8. Israel Sancho & maximo Camacho, 2002. "Spanish diffusion indexes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 276, Society for Computational Economics.
  9. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
  10. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
  11. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2005. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," CEPR Discussion Papers 5178, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  13. Rafael Doménech & Víctor Gómez, 2005. "Ciclo económico y desempleo estructural en la economía española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(2), pages 259-288, May.
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