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Robust Implementation of a Parsimonious Dynamic Factor Model to Nowcast GDP

  • Pablo Duarte
  • Bernd Süssmuth

Quarterly GDP figures usually are published with a delay of some weeks. A common way to generate GDP series of higher frequency, i.e. to nowcast GDP, is to use available indicators to calculate a single index by means of a common factor derived from a dynamic factor model (DFM). This paper deals with the implementation stage of this practice. We propose a two-tiered mechanism consisting in the identification of variables highly correlated with GDP as “core” indicators and a check of robustness of these variables in the sense of extreme bounds analysis. Accordingly selected indicators are used in an approximate DFM framework to exemplarily nowcast Spanish GDP growth. We show that our implementation produces more accurate nowcasts than both a benchmark stochastic process and the implementation based on the total set of core indicators.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2014/wp-cesifo-2014-01/cesifo1_wp4574.pdf
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Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 4574.

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Date of creation: 2014
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Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4574
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  1. Elena Angelini & Gonzalo Camba‐Mendez & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Gerhard Rünstler, 2011. "Short‐term forecasts of euro area GDP growth," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages C25-C44, February.
  2. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2010. "Nowcasting from disaggregates in the face of location shifts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 200-214.
  3. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  4. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing,Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
  5. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  6. Leamer, Edward E, 1985. "Sensitivity Analyses Would Help," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 308-13, June.
  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
  8. Leamer, Edward E, 1983. "Let's Take the Con Out of Econometrics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 31-43, March.
  9. repec:hal:journl:hal-00287137 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2005. "Dynamic factor models," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,38, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  11. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2009. "Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 71-89, October.
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