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Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine GDP Growth

  • Marcos Dal Bianco
  • Jaime Martinez-Martín
  • Maximo Camacho

In this paper, we propose a small-scale dynamic factor model for monitoring Argentine GDP in real time using economic data at mixed frequencies (monthly and quarterly). Our model not only produces a coincident index of the Argentine business cycle in striking accordance with professional consensus and the history of the Argentine business cycle, but also generates accurate short-run forecasts of Argentine GDP growth. By using a simulated real-time empirical evaluation, we are able to demonstrate that our model produces reliable backcasts, nowcasts and forecasts well before the official data is released.

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1314.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1314
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  1. Juan Mario Jorrat & Ana María Cerro, 2000. "Computing turning point monthly probability of the Argentinian economy according to the leading index: 1973 - 2000," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2 Year 20), pages 279-295, December.
  2. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
  3. Camacho Maximo & Perez Quiros Gabriel, 2007. "Jump-and-Rest Effect of U.S. Business Cycles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-39, December.
  4. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2009. "Introducing the Euro-STING: Short-Term Indicator of Euro Area Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 7343, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Maximo Camacho & Rafael Domenech, 2010. "MICA-BBVA: A Factor Model of Economic and Financial Indicators for Short-term GDP Forecasting," Working Papers 1021, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  7. Liu, Philip & Matheson, Troy & Romeu, Rafael, 2012. "Real-time forecasts of economic activity for Latin American economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1090-1098.
  8. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  9. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David H., 2006. "Nowcasting GDP and inflation: the real-time informational content of macroeconomic data releases," Working Paper Series 0633, European Central Bank.
  11. Philip R. Lane, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," Trinity Economics Papers 20032, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  12. Maximo Camacho & Jaime Martinez-Martin, 2014. "Real-time forecasting US GDP from small-scale factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 347-364, August.
  13. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  14. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1205, Banco de Espa�a.
  15. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  16. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," PIER Working Paper Archive 10-002, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  17. Alejandro Simone, 2001. "In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 01/30, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  20. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
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