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Short-Run Forecasting of Argentine GDP Growth

  • Marcos Dal Bianco
  • Jaime Martinez-Martín
  • Maximo Camacho

In this paper, we propose a small-scale dynamic factor model for monitoring Argentine GDP in real time using economic data at mixed frequencies (monthly and quarterly). Our model not only produces a coincident index of the Argentine business cycle in striking accordance with professional consensus and the history of the Argentine business cycle, but also generates accurate short-run forecasts of Argentine GDP growth. By using a simulated real-time empirical evaluation, we are able to demonstrate that our model produces reliable backcasts, nowcasts and forecasts well before the official data is released.

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Paper provided by BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department in its series Working Papers with number 1314.

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Length: 19 pages
Date of creation: Apr 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bbv:wpaper:1314
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  1. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2005. "Jump-and-Rest Effects of US Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," Working Papers 08-19, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  4. Juan Mario Jorrat & Ana María Cerro, 2000. "Computing turning point monthly probability of the Argentinian economy according to the leading index: 1973 - 2000," Estudios de Economia, University of Chile, Department of Economics, vol. 27(2 Year 20), pages 279-295, December.
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions," NBER Working Papers 15657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  8. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  9. Alejandro Simone, 2001. "In Search of Coincident and Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Argentina," IMF Working Papers 01/30, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Small, David, 2008. "Nowcasting: The real-time informational content of macroeconomic data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 665-676, May.
  11. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  12. Tom Stark & Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Working Papers 01-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  13. Lane, Philip R, 2003. "Business Cycles and Macroeconomic Policy in Emerging Market Economies," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(1), pages 89-108, Spring.
  14. Máximo Camacho & Jaime Martínez-Martín, 2014. "Real-time forecasting us GDP from small-scale factor models," Working Papers 1425, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  15. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle is the Trend," Scholarly Articles 11988098, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  16. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
  17. Philip Liu & Rafael Romeu & Troy D Matheson, 2011. "Real-time Forecasts of Economic Activity for Latin American Economies," IMF Working Papers 11/98, International Monetary Fund.
  18. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
  19. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  20. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, September.
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