IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/region/297.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19

Author

Listed:
  • Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena
  • Diana Ricciulli-Marín
  • Jaime Bonet-Morón
  • Paula Barrios

Abstract

Las medidas de responsabilidad fiscal subnacional con las que cuenta actualmente el país permitieron conjurar la crisis de finales de los noventa, en donde municipios y departamentos enfrentaban sobreendeudamiento y altos niveles de gasto y déficit. En este documento se presenta un análisis descriptivo de las más de dos décadas de existencia de las reglas fiscales subnacionales, la eficacia en el cumplimiento de sus objetivos y su comportamiento durante la pandemia del COVID-19. La actual pandemia ha puesto a prueba al país en todas sus dimensiones y las medidas de responsabilidad fiscal subnacional no son la excepción, ya que se evidenció su inflexibilidad para actuar frente a choques externos y para ajustarse al ciclo económico. Se plantea entonces la necesidad de hacer ajustes en estos frentes, definiendo cláusulas de escape y otras herramientas a través de las cuales departamentos y municipios puedan expandir su gasto y endeudamiento por encima de los límites establecidos durante los periodos de crisis. **** ABSTRACT: The establishment of subnational fiscal rules in Colombia was crucial to tackle the end-ofnineties economic crisis, when departments and municipalities faced over-indebtedness as well as high levels of expenditures and deficits. This document presents a descriptive analysis of the more than two decades of existence of subnational fiscal rules, analyzing their effectiveness in meeting their goals and their performance during the COVID-19 pandemic. The latter has challenged the country in many dimensions and subnational fiscal responsibility rules are not the exception; in particular, due to their inflexibility to respond to external shocks and to adapt to business cycles. This document raises attention to the importance of making adjustments on these dimensions by formulating, among others, escape clauses and measures that enable departments and municipalities to expand their expenditures and indebtedness above established thresholds during times of crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 297, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:region:297
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.297
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.297
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.32468/dtseru.297?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," Revista Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, June.
    3. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    4. Ronny Nilsson & Gyorgy Gyomai, 2011. "Cycle Extraction: A Comparison of the Phase-Average Trend Method, the Hodrick-Prescott and Christiano-Fitzgerald Filters," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2011/4, OECD Publishing.
    5. Daron Acemoglu & Victor Chernozhukov & Iván Werning & Michael D. Whinston, 2021. "Optimal Targeted Lockdowns in a Multigroup SIR Model," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 487-502, December.
    6. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    7. María Aguilera Díaz & Yuri Reina Aranza & Antonio Orozco Gallo & Javier Yabrudy Vega & Rosemary Barcos Robles, 2013. "Composición de la economía de la región Caribe de Colombia," Ensayos sobre Economía Regional (ESER) 53, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    8. Siem Jan Koopman & Neil Shephard & Jurgen A. Doornik, 1999. "Statistical algorithms for models in state space using SsfPack 2.2," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(1), pages 107-160.
    9. María Aguilera Díaz & Yuri Reina Aranza & Antonio Orozco Gallo & Javier Yabrudy Vega & Rosemary Barcos Robles, 2017. "Evolución socioeconómica de la región Caribe colombiana entre 1997 y 2017," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 15738, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    10. Fernando E. Alvarez & David Argente & Francesco Lippi, 2020. "A Simple Planning Problem for COVID-19 Lockdown," NBER Working Papers 26981, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Aruoba, S. BoraÄŸan & Diebold, Francis X. & Scotti, Chiara, 2009. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 417-427.
    12. Elena Angelini & Marta Banbura & Gerhard Rünstler, 2010. "Estimating and forecasting the euro area monthly national accounts from a dynamic factor model," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(1), pages 1-22.
    13. Ana María Iregui B. & Ligia Melo B. & Jorge Ramos F., 2004. "El impuesto predial en Colombia:evolución reciente, comportamiento de las tarifas y potencial de recuado," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(46-2), pages 258-304, Diciembre.
    14. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2010. "Introducing the euro-sting: Short-term indicator of euro area growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 663-694.
    15. David Berger & Kyle Herkenhoff & Chengdai Huang & Simon Mongey, 2022. "Testing and Reopening in an SEIR Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 1-21, January.
    16. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    17. Juan Esteban Carranza & Juan David Martin & Álvaro José Riascos, 2020. "The COVID epidemic and the economic activity with acquired immunity," Borradores de Economia 1147, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Máximo Camacho & Rafael Doménech, 2012. "MICA-BBVA: a factor model of economic and financial indicators for short-term GDP forecasting," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 475-497, December.
    19. Adolfo Meisel-Roca & María Aguilera-Díaz, 2020. "Cartagena, 2005-2018: Lo bueno, lo regular y lo malo," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 18597, Banco de la República, Economía Regional.
    20. Mauricio Avella Gómez & Leopoldo Fergusson T., 2004. "El ciclo económico - Enfoques e ilustraciones - Los ciclos económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2465, Banco de la Republica.
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Introduction to "Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting"," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 1-10, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Otaviano Canuto, 2020. "The Impact of Coronavirus on the Global Economy," Policy notes & Policy briefs 1929, Policy Center for the New South.
    23. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Fabio H. Nieto & Luis Fernando Melo, 2001. "About a Coincident Index for the State of the Economy," Borradores de Economia 1938, Banco de la Republica.
    25. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882, January.
    26. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    27. Andrew Atkeson, 2020. "What Will be the Economic Impact of COVID-19 in the US? Rough Estimates of Disease Scenarios," Staff Report 595, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    28. Robert S. Pindyck, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Welfare Effects of Reducing Contagion," NBER Working Papers 27121, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    30. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number stoc93-1, March.
    31. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
    32. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W. (ed.), 1993. "Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226774886, December.
    33. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1993. "A Procedure for Predicting Recessions with Leading Indicators: Econometric Issues and Recent Experience," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 95-156, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Jiaying Peng & Zhenghui Li & Benjamin M. Drakeford, 2020. "Dynamic Characteristics of Crude Oil Price Fluctuation—From the Perspective of Crude Oil Price Influence Mechanism," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(17), pages 1-19, August.
    35. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 3678, Banco de la Republica.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan Pablo Jiménez & Leonardo Letelier & Ignacio Ruelas & Jaime Bonet-Morón, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales: Revisión empírica, experiencias internacionales y sus desafíos en la nueva institucionalidad fiscal post COVID," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 300, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de trabajo sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 298, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    3. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 2019-4, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa.
    5. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," PSE Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    6. Catherine Doz & Peter Fuleky, 2019. "Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers halshs-02262202, HAL.
    7. DAVID E. ALLEN & MICHAEL McALEER & ROBERT J. POWELL & ABHAY K. SINGH, 2018. "Non-Parametric Multiple Change Point Analysis Of The Global Financial Crisis," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Farboodi, Maryam & Jarosch, Gregor & Shimer, Robert, 2021. "Internal and external effects of social distancing in a pandemic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    9. Çakmaklı, Cem & Demiralp, Selva & Özcan, Şebnem Kalemli & Yeşiltaş, Sevcan & Yıldırım, Muhammed A., 2023. "COVID-19 and emerging markets: A SIR model, demand shocks and capital flows," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Victor Aguirregabiria & Jiaying Gu & Yao Luo & Pedro Mira, 2020. "A Dynamic Structural Model of Virus Diffusion and Network Production: A First Report," Working Papers tecipa-665, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
    11. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    12. Grace Lee, 2011. "Aggregate shocks decomposition for eight East Asian countries," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(2), pages 215-232.
    13. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Calling recessions in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1006-1026, October.
    14. Liang, Yousha & Shi, Kang & Tang, Junjie & Xu, Juanyi, 2022. "Pandemic and containment policies in open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," Borradores de Economia 900, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Michael Funke & Harm Bandholz, 2003. "In search of leading indicators of economic activity in Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 277-297.
    17. Juan Esteban Carranza & Juan David Martin & Álvaro José Riascos, 2020. "The COVID epidemic and the economic activity with acquired immunity," Borradores de Economia 1147, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    18. Ubilava, David, 2019. "On The Relationship Between Financial Instability And Economic Performance: Stressing The Business Of Nonlinear Modeling," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 80-100, January.
    19. Sewon Hur, 2023. "The Distributional Effects Of Covid‐19 And Optimal Mitigation Policies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 64(1), pages 261-294, February.
    20. Abdullah Tahir & Jameel Ahmed & Waqas Ahmed, 2018. "Robust Quarterization of GDP and Determination of Business Cycle Dates for IGC Partner Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 97, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Reglas fiscales subnacionales; COVID-19; economía regional; subnational fiscal rules; COVID-19; regional economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H7 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations
    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • R10 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:region:297. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.