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Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana

Author

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  • Luis Fernando Melo
  • Fabio H. Nieto
  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • Yanneth Rocío Betancourt

Abstract

Dentro de la teoría de los ciclos económicos, la metodología de indicadores económicos coincidentes y líderes ha jugado un papel importante en la descripción y pronóstico del estado de la actividad económica. Una forma utilizada para calcular índices compuestos de variables indicadoras es el uso de modelos de probabilidad explícitos, en los cuales el índice coincidente corresponde a una variable no observable que representa el estado general de la economía y permite identificar aquello que se busca predecir con el índice líder. En este documento se calcula un índice coincidente para la actividad económica de Colombia utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas y corresponde a la primera parte de un proyecto de indicadores para la economía colombiana en el cual se pretende estimar un índice líder.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003678
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gerson Javier Pérez-Valbuena & Diana Ricciulli-Marín & Jaime Bonet-Morón & Paula Barrios, 2021. "Reglas fiscales subnacionales en Colombia: desde su concepción hasta los resultados frente al COVID-19," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 019126, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    2. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    3. Martha Misas A. & Carlos Esteban Posada P & Diego Mauricio Vásquez E, 2003. "¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 21(43), pages 8-31, June.
    4. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability Of Acoincident Index Model For The Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002799, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    5. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos V., 2003. "A Leading Index For The Colombian Economic Activity," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001920, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2008. "La tasa de interés natural en Colombia," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 164-201, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    7. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posada & José Fernando Escobar, 2004. "El Crédito Y Sus Factores Determinantes: El Caso Colombiano (1990-2004)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002482, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    8. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability of a Coincident Index Model for the Colombian Economy," Borradores de Economia 242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2003:i:43:p:8-31 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jiménez Polanco, Miguel Alejandro & López Hawa, Nabil & Ramírez Escoboza, Merlym, 2016. "Indicadores Compuestos de Actividad Económica por sectores para la República Dominicana [Composite Indicators of Economic Activity for the Dominican Republic]," MPRA Paper 75916, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Sandra V. Rozo V., 2008. "Nuevo enfoque para la construcción de un único indicador líder de la actividad económica colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, December.
    12. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    13. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    14. Pavel Vidal Alejandro & Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Johana Sanabria Dominguez & Jaime Andres Collazos Rodríguez, 2015. "Indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) para el Valle del Cauca," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 013610, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    15. Lya Paola Sierra Suárez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro, 2017. "La construcción de indicadores de la actividad económica: una revisión bibliográfica," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 36(64), pages 79-107, October.
    16. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
    17. Antonio José Orozco-Gallo & Pavel Vidal-Alejandro & Johana Sanabria-Domínguez & Jaime Andrés Collazos-Rodríguez, 2021. "Indicador coincidente de actividad económica en la recesión pandémica: el caso del Caribe colombiano," Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional y Urbana 019285, Banco de la República - Economía Regional.
    18. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.
    19. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.

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