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Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia

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  • Enrique López Enciso

Abstract

Este trabajo analiza dos grandes tradiciones en la medición del ciclo económico: los indicadores cíclicos y el cálculo de variables agregadas no observadas (producto potencial, tasa de interés natural, tasa de desempleo natural y tasa de cambio de equilibrio) y de sus brechas asociadas. La primera tradición, también conocida como la visión empírica del ciclo, debe mucho al esfuerzo del NBER y tuvo un gran desarrollo sobre todo en las economías avanzadas. En Colombia, se han hecho muchos trabajos en esa dirección. Sin embargo, pocos de estos sobreviven, con lo cual el país ha perdido un instrumento valioso en el análisis de la coyuntura económica. El presente documento es la primera parte del trabajo completo y narra la historia de la primera tradición.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000485:017226
    DOI: 10.21789/24222704.1432
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclo económico; sistemas de indicadores; medición del ciclo; historia económica;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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