IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/ces/ifofob/72.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II

Author

Listed:
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Since its foundation in 1949 the Ifo Institute has accompanied economic activity in Germany, Europe and worldwide by its regular business surveys and economic forecasts. In 2007 the Ifo Institute published a first collection of selected articles on methodological backgrounds, which had been extracted from the ifo Schnelldienst. The present volume continues this tradition and presents articles from the years 2003 until 2016 focussing on forecasting methods, macroeconomic analysis, monetary analysis, the Ifo Business Survey for Germany and the Ifo World Economic Survey. The selected articles of the first chapter range from specific forecasting methods to statistical basics like the volume measurement in national accounts or the seasonal adjustment in the Ifo Business Survey. The next chapter focusses on specific aspects of macroeconomic analysis, followed by articles that draw attention to the monetary analysis, particularly the European Central Bank´s monetary policy. Last but not least this issue presents a variety of articles that figure out further details on the Ifo Business Survey and the Ifo World Economic Survey. All authors are active or former economists of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:72
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifo_Forschungsberichte_72_2016_Nierhaus_etal_Konjunkturumfragen_II.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger & Christian Breuer & Teresa Buchen & Steffen Elstner & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Johannes Mayr & Wolf, 2010. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2010/2011:Growth forces shift to Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(12), pages 12-63, June.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for cyclical dominance and the Ifo Business Climate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    3. Mick Silver & Khashayar Mahdavy, 1989. "The Measurement of a Nation's Terms of Trade Effect and Real National Disposable Income Within a National Accounting Framework," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 152(1), pages 87-107, January.
    4. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2016. "Looking into the black box of boosting: the case of Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(17), pages 1229-1233, November.
    5. Eric Ghysels & Arthur Sinko & Rossen Valkanov, 2007. "MIDAS Regressions: Further Results and New Directions," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 53-90.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    7. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    8. Julius Shiskin, 1957. "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number juli57-1, March.
    9. Jonathan Meer & Jeremy West, 2016. "Effects of the Minimum Wage on Employment Dynamics," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(2), pages 500-522.
    10. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock: A precision instrument for the analysis of the economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    11. Klaus Wohlrabe & Teresa Buchen, 2014. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Forecasting Performance of Boosting: Evidence for the United States, the Euro Area and Germany," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 231-242, July.
    12. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    13. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
    14. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    15. Bachmann, Ronald & Bauer, Thomas K. & Kluve, Jochen & Schaffner, Sandra & Schmidt, Christoph M., 2008. "Mindestlöhne in Deutschland: Beschäftigungswirkungen und fiskalische Effekte," RWI Materialien 43, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung.
    16. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
    17. repec:ces:ifowes:v:15:y:2016:i:4:p:01-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Stephan Danninger & Fred Joutz, 2008. "What Explains Germany's Rebounding Export Market Share?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 54(4), pages 681-714, December.
    19. Berg Tim Oliver, 2017. "Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 1-29, April.
    20. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Schnatz, Bernd, 2007. "Explaining and forecasting euro area exports: which competitiveness indicator performs best?," Working Paper Series 833, European Central Bank.
    21. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(03), pages 27-30, June.
    22. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    23. Ambler, Steve & Cardia, Emanuela & Zimmermann, Christian, 2004. "International business cycles: What are the facts?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 257-276, March.
    24. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Shynar Shaikh, 2009. "Findings of the Signal Approach for Financial Monitoring in Kazakhstan," CESifo Working Paper Series 2774, CESifo.
    25. Oliver Falck & Andreas Knabe & Andreas Mazat & Simon Wiederhold, 2013. "The Minimum Wage in Germany: How Many People Are Affected?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(24), pages 68-73, December.
    26. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, March.
    27. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    28. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), 2005. "Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis," Contributions to Economics, Springer, number 978-3-7908-1605-1, October.
    29. Filippo Altissimo & Giovanni L. Violante, 2001. "The non-linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(4), pages 461-486.
    30. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "Im Sog der Weltrezession: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2009," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(1. Sonder), pages 1-101.
    31. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    32. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    33. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "Erholung setzt sich fort – Risiken bleiben groß: Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2010," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 16(1. Sonder), pages 1-95.
    34. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1998. "Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 51(28), pages 07-19, October.
    35. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    36. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    37. Christian Erthle & Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "The Nationwide Minimum Wage and Companies’ Reaction to It – Results of a Special Poll Featuring in the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(23), pages 50-52, December.
    38. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Mark Watson, 1997. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(1), pages 91-157.
    39. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72, pages 584-584.
    40. David Iselin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2013. "Using Newspapers for Tracking the Business Cycle," KOF Working papers 13-337, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    41. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Rodrigo Valdes & Oscar Landerretche, 2001. "Lending Booms: Latin America and the World," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 47-100, January.
    42. Peter A. Zadrozny, 1990. "Estimating A Multivariate Arma Model with Mixed-Frequency Data: An Application to Forecasting U.S. GNP at Monthly Intervals," Working Papers 90-5, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    43. Carstensen Kai & Wohlrabe Klaus & Ziegler Christina, 2011. "Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test: A Case Study for the Euro Area Industrial Production," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 82-106, February.
    44. Daniel Detzer & Christian R. Proaño & Katja Rietzler & Sven Schreiber & Thomas Theobald & Sabine Stephan, 2012. "Verfahren der konjunkturellen Wendepunktbestimmung unter Berücksichtigung der Echtzeit-Problematik," IMK Studies 27-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    45. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Dirk Ulbricht, 2007. "On the evaluation of VAR forecasts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(07), pages 19-25, April.
    46. Berg, Tim O. & Henzel, Steffen R., 2015. "Point and density forecasts for the euro area using Bayesian VARs," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1067-1095.
    47. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2005. "The State of the World Economy and the German Economy in the Fall of 2005," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(20), pages 03-48, October.
    48. Issing, Otmar, 2013. "A new paradigm for monetary policy?," CFS Working Paper Series 2013/02, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    49. M. Ayhan Kose & Christopher Otrok & Eswar Prasad, 2012. "Global Business Cycles: Convergence Or Decoupling?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 53(2), pages 511-538, May.
    50. Bachmann, Rüdiger & Born, Benjamin & Elstner, Steffen & Grimme, Christian, 2019. "Time-varying business volatility and the price setting of firms," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 82-99.
    51. Tim Oliver Berg, 2016. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(8), pages 718-740, December.
    52. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Besonderheiten der Quartalsrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 14-21, August.
    53. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate: A reliable leading indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    54. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    55. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    56. Ivo J.M. Arnold & Jan J.G. Lemmen, 2008. "Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 325-346, July.
    57. Otmar Issing, 2013. "A New Paradigm for Monetary Policy?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(2), pages 273-288, June.
    58. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Folgen der US-Immobilienkrise belasten Konjunktur - Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2008," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 14(1. Sonder), pages 1-84.
    59. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
    60. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "German Economy Recovering - Long-Term Appproach Needed to Economic Policy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(08), pages 03-77, April.
    61. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    62. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    63. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    64. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Willi Leibfritz, 1993. "Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(07), pages 10-15, October.
    65. Michael Woodford, 2008. "How Important Is Money in the Conduct of Monetary Policy?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1561-1598, December.
    66. Martin D. D. Evans, 2005. "Where Are We Now? Real-Time Estimates of the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(2), September.
    67. Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
    68. Kholodilin Konstantin Arkadievich & Siliverstovs Boriss, 2006. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(3), pages 234-259, June.
    69. Sack, Brian & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Interest-rate smoothing and optimal monetary policy: a review of recent empirical evidence," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 205-228.
    70. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov Switching and the Ifo Business Climate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
    71. Kim, Hyun Hak & Swanson, Norman R., 2014. "Forecasting financial and macroeconomic variables using data reduction methods: New empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P2), pages 352-367.
    72. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2005. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 93-114, Springer.
    73. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    74. Karel Havik & Kieran Mc Morrow & Fabrice Orlandi & Christophe Planas & Rafal Raciborski & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi & Anna Thum-Thysen & Valerie Vandermeulen, 2014. "The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 535, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    75. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 364, European Central Bank.
    76. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
    77. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2009. "In the Maelstrom of World Recession," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(08), pages 03-81, April.
    78. Christian Aßmann & Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, 2012. "Determinants of government bond spreads in the euro area: in good times as in bad," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(3), pages 341-356, August.
    79. Nils Jannsen & Julia Richter, 2012. "Kapazitätsauslastung im Ausland als Indikator für die deutschen Investitionsgüterexporte," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(12), pages 833-837, December.
    80. Stangl, Anna, 2009. "Essays on the Measurement of Economic Expectations," Munich Dissertations in Economics 9823, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    81. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2013. "Deutsche Konjunktur erholt sich – Wirtschaftspolitik stärker an der langen Frist ausrichten," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 10-13, June.
    82. R. Glenn Hubbard, 1998. "Capital-Market Imperfections and Investment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(1), pages 193-225, March.
    83. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
    84. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Current Economic Developments in View of the Ifo Economic Traffic Light," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(22), pages 36-38, November.
    85. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
    86. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2017. "The Euro Trap: On Bursting Bubbles, Budgets, and Beliefs," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198791447, Decembrie.
    87. Alexander Eck & Joachim Ragnitz & Simone Scharfe & Christian Thater & Bernhard Wieland, 2015. "Public Investments in Infrastructure: Development, Causal Factors and Growth Effects," ifo Dresden Studien, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, July.
    88. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
    89. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate and turning points of the German business cycle," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(03), pages 26-31, February.
    90. Buhlmann P. & Yu B., 2003. "Boosting With the L2 Loss: Regression and Classification," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 324-339, January.
    91. Schumacher, Christian & Loose, Brigitte & Langmantel, Erich & Gottschalk, Jan & Fritsche, Ulrich & Döpke, Jörg, 1999. "Indikatoren zur Prognose der Investitionen in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 906, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    92. Woodford, Michael, 2013. "Forward Guidance by Inflation-Targeting Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    93. Manasse, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2009. ""Rules of thumb" for sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 192-205, July.
    94. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    95. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    96. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Klaus Abberger, 2014. "Forecasting business-cycle turning points: the three-times-in-succession rule vs. Markov switching," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(16), pages 21-25, August.
    97. Stahn, Kerstin, 2006. "Has the impact of key determinants of German exports changed? Results from estimations of Germany's intra euro-area and extra euro-area exports," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    98. Kohli, Ulrich, 2004. "Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 83-106, January.
    99. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Are there any reliable leading indicators for US inflation and GDP growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 137-151.
    100. Hans-Werner Sinn & Christian Holzner & Wolfgang Meister & Wolfgang Ochel & Martin Werding, 2006. "Redesigning the Welfare State," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12596.
    101. Buchen, Teresa & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2011. "Forecasting with many predictors: Is boosting a viable alternative?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 16-18, October.
    102. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Forecasting qualities of the Ifo Business Climate Index - a look at recent studies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    103. Christophe Planas & Werner Roeger & Alessandro Rossi, 2010. "Does capacity utilisation help estimating the TFP cycle?," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 410, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    104. Stefan Mittnik & Peter Zadrozny, 2005. "Forecasting Quarterly German GDP at Monthly Intervals Using Monthly Ifo Business Conditions Data," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 19-48, Springer.
    105. Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2009. "Forecasting US output growth using leading indicators: an appraisal using MIDAS models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 1187-1206.
    106. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    107. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2011. "Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2011: Upswing continues - European Debt Crisis still Unresolved," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(08), pages 03-63, April.
    108. Quaas, Georg, 2009. "Realgrößen und Preisindizes im alten und im neuen VGR-System [Macro-economic aggregates in real terms and price indices in the old and the new system of national accounts]," MPRA Paper 22316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2010.
    109. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178.
    110. Abberger, Klaus, 2007. "Qualitative business surveys and the assessment of employment -- A case study for Germany," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 249-258.
    111. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    112. Ghysels, Eric & Santa-Clara, Pedro & Valkanov, Rossen, 2004. "The MIDAS Touch: Mixed Data Sampling Regression Models," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt9mf223rs, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    113. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Survey of the survey in distribution - a meta-survey on the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    114. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "What is a recession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 44-45, July.
    115. Steffen Henzel, 2015. "Forecasting Accuracy of the Ifo Business Survey – Influence of New Seasonal Adjustment with X-13ARIMA-SEATS," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 59-63, January.
    116. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2008. "Joint Economic Analysis in Spring 2008: Economic Activity Hampered by the Repercussions Impact of the US Real-estate Crisis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(08), pages 03-71, April.
    117. Georg Goldrian, 2004. "Handbuch der umfragebasierten Konjunkturforschung," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 15.
    118. Roberts, John M., 1997. "Is inflation sticky?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 173-196, July.
    119. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2000. "Real income in the new European System of Accounts," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 53(04), pages 07-13, February.
    120. Angeloni Ignazio & Ehrmann Michael, 2007. "Euro Area Inflation Differentials," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-36, August.
    121. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
    122. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    123. Christian Bordes & Laurent Clerc & Vêlayoudom Marimoutou, 2007. "Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?," Post-Print hal-00308654, HAL.
    124. Yngve Abrahamsen & Jochen Hartwig, 2010. "Lagerinvestitionen und Produktion in Europa: Gibt es ein Muster?," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 4(2), pages 27-40, June.
    125. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
    126. Unknown, 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2005," Report Series 26053, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    127. Michael D. Bordo & Olivier Jeanne, 2002. "Boom-Busts in Asset Prices, Economic Instability, and Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 8966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    128. Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 169-177, April.
    129. Gilles Mourre & Caterina Astarita & Savina Princen, 2014. "Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 536, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    130. David Neumark & William Wascher, 2004. "Minimum Wages, Labor Market Institutions, and Youth Employment: A Cross-National Analysis," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 57(2), pages 223-248, January.
    131. Angelini, Elena & Henry, Jerome & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Interpolation and backdating with a large information set," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2693-2724, December.
    132. Baffigi, Alberto & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2004. "Bridge models to forecast the euro area GDP," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 447-460.
    133. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2010. "The Recovery Continues - Considerable Risks Remain," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(08), pages 03-78, April.
    134. repec:ces:ifowes:v:13:y:2014:i:1:p:1-26 is not listed on IDEAS
    135. Johanna Garnitz & Gernot Nerb & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "CESifo World Economic Survey August 2013," ifo World Economic Survey, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(03), pages 1-25, August.
    136. Kirchner, Robert, 1999. "Auswirkungen des neuen Saisonbereinigungsverfahrens Census X-12-ARIMA auf die aktuelle Wirtschaftsanalyse in Deutschland," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1999,07, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    137. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Andre Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2011. "Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions," Working Papers 11-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    138. Kerstin Stahn, 2006. "Has the Impact of Key Determinants of German Exports Changed?," Springer Books, in: Convergence or Divergence in Europe?, pages 361-384, Springer.
    139. Oliver Hülsewig & Johannes Mayr & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2008. "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information," CESifo Working Paper Series 2371, CESifo.
    140. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1996. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1), pages 143-193, July.
    141. Favero, Carlo & Pagano, Marco & von Thadden, Ernst-Ludwig, 2010. "How Does Liquidity Affect Government Bond Yields?," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 107-134, February.
    142. Anna Billharz & Steffen Elstner & Marcus Jüppner, 2012. "Ifo Short-Term Forecasting Methods Illustrated Using Investment in Equipment," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 24-33, November.
    143. Klaus Abberger & Maximilian Frey & Michaela Kesina & Anna Wolf, 2009. "Indicators for global economic activity," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(16), pages 32-41, August.
    144. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Boom-Bust Cycles in Middle Income Countries: Facts and Explanation," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(Special i), pages 111-155.
    145. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    146. Steffen Henzel & Sebastian Rast, 2013. "Forecasting Properties of Indicators for Predicting GDP Growth in Germany," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(17), pages 39-46, September.
    147. Hans-Albert Leifer & Peter Tennagels, 2008. "Preisbereinigtes Bruttoinlandsprodukt: Publikationspraxis im In- und Ausland," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 88(3), pages 203-207, March.
    148. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Sebastian Rohloff, 2015. "Forecasting gold-price fluctuations: a real-time boosting approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 46-50, January.
    149. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    150. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 2002. "Term structure evidence on interest rate smoothing and monetary policy inertia," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1161-1187, September.
    151. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, March.
    152. repec:ces:ifowes:v:12:y:2013:i:3:p:1-25 is not listed on IDEAS
    153. Michael Kleemann, 2014. "The global impact of the Ukrainian crisis: results of the latest Ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(16), pages 50-52, August.
    154. Johanna Garnitz & Gernot Nerb & Klaus Wohlrabe & Michael Kleemann, 2014. "CESifo World Economic Survey February 2014," ifo World Economic Survey, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(01), pages 1-26, February.
    155. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
    156. Gernot Nerb & Johanna Garnitz, 2013. "Ifo World Economic Climate Clouds Over Slightly - Results of the 121st World Economic Survey (WES) for the third quarter of 2013," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(16), pages 35-46, August.
    157. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, March.
    158. Thomas Strobel, 2015. "Weak Investment and the Tertiarisation of Germany’s Economic Structure," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 43-49, January.
    159. Stephan Sauer & Jan‐Egbert Sturm, 2007. "Using Taylor Rules to Understand European Central Bank Monetary Policy," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(3), pages 375-398, August.
    160. Diron, Marie, 2006. "Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data," Working Paper Series 622, European Central Bank.
    161. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    162. Ulrich Kohli, 2006. "Real GDP, Real GDI and Trading Gains: Canada, 1981-2005," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 13, pages 46-56, Fall.
    163. Hahn, Elke & Skudelny, Frauke, 2008. "Early estimates of euro area real GDP growth: a bottom up approach from the production side," Working Paper Series 975, European Central Bank.
    164. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, March.
    165. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," CESifo Working Paper Series 1694, CESifo.
    166. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Die Target-Falle: Gefahren für unser Geld und unsere Kinder," Books, by Staff of the ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 201210, April.
    167. Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "Die Target-Falle: Gefahren für unser Geld und unsere Kinder," Books, by Staff of the ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 2012001.
    168. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H & Wright, Jonathan H, 2005. "News and Noise in G-7 GDP Announcements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 403-419, June.
    169. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
    170. Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2009. "Forecasting with mixed-frequency time series models," Munich Dissertations in Economics 9681, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    171. Lars Forsberg & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 5(1), pages 31-67.
    172. Anna Stangl, 2007. "World Economic Survey," Chapters, in: Georg Goldrian (ed.), Handbook of Survey-Based Business Cycle Analysis, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    173. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "The Influence of the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict on German Manufacturing - Results of a Special Question in the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(14), pages 54-56, July.
    174. Wojciech W. Charemza & Derek F. Deadman, 1992. "New Directions In Econometric Practice," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 84.
    175. Amihud, Yakov & Mendelson, Haim, 1991. "Liquidity, Maturity, and the Yields on U.S. Treasury Securities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1411-1425, September.
    176. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Previous-year price basis: Calculating rules for aggregation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(22), pages 12-16, November.
    177. Hirotugu Akaike, 1969. "Fitting autoregressive models for prediction," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 21(1), pages 243-247, December.
    178. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2005," HWWA Reports 258, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    179. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2015. "Real Value of Gross Domestic Product and Terms of Trade: Results for 2014," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(03), pages 36-40, February.
    180. Stefan Bach & Guido Baldi & Kerstin Bernoth & Björn Bremer & Beatrice Farkas & Ferdinand Fichtner & Marcel Fratzscher & Martin Gornig, 2013. "Wege zu einem höheren Wachstumspfad," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 80(26), pages 6-17.
    181. Peter Grasmann & Filip Keereman, 2001. "An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 154, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    182. K. Barhoumi & S. Benk & R. Cristadoro & A. Den Reijer & A. Jakaitiene & P. Jelonek & A. Rua & K. Ruth & C. Van Nieuwenhuyze & G. Rünstler, 2008. "Short-term forecasting of GDP using large monthly datasets – A pseudo real-time forecast evaluation exercise," Working Paper Research 133, National Bank of Belgium.
    183. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Previous year price basis and chain linking in the National Accounts: the most important features of the new volume calculation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(15), pages 29-35, August.
    184. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
    185. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "How important are fundamentals?--Evidence from a structural VAR model for the stock markets in the US, Japan and Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 185-201, April.
    186. Zeddies, Götz, 2009. "Exportweltmeister trotz Euro-Höhenflug: Zum Einfluss der Wechselkurse auf die deutschen Ausfuhren," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 15(6), pages 247-255.
    187. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    188. Zadrozny, Peter, 1988. "Gaussian Likelihood of Continuous-Time ARMAX Models When Data Are Stocks and Flows at Different Frequencies," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 108-124, April.
    189. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    190. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Ifo Business Climate and the production index in manufacturing," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(21), pages 42-45, November.
    191. Benoit Bellone, 2005. "Classical Estimation of Multivariate Markov-Switching Models using MSVARlib," Econometrics 0508017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    192. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Price-adjusted GDP and the practice followed by the Institutes in the Joint Economic Analysis," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, May.
    193. Christian Hott & André Kunkel, 2004. "An Ifo employment indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(06), pages 53-57, March.
    194. Dellas, Harris, 1986. "A real model of the world business cycle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 381-394, September.
    195. Anna Stangl, 2008. "Internet Business Tendency Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 387-399.
    196. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    197. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    198. Arbeitsgemeinschaft deutscher wirtschaftswissenschaftlicher Forschungsinstitute, 2005. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2005," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 11(2. Sonder), pages 1-63.
    199. Steffen Henzel & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "An Alternative to the Carlson-Parkin Method for the Quantification of Qualitative Inflation Expectations: Evidence from the Ifo World Economic Survey," ifo Working Paper Series 9, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    200. Benjamin Born & Teresa Buchen & Kai Carstensen & Christian Grimme & Michael Kleemann & Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012. "Withdrawal of Greece from the European Monetary Union: Historical experience, macroeconomic consequences and organisational implementation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(10), pages 09-37, May.
    201. Unknown, 2001. "Die Lage der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft im Herbst 2001," Report Series 26110, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    202. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    203. Bardt Hubertus & Grömling Michael & Hüther Michael, 2015. "Schwache Unternehmensinvestitionen in Deutschland? Diagnose und Therapie," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 64(2), pages 224-250, August.
    204. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Previous year price basis: Aggregation and linked difference," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(06), pages 29-33, March.
    205. Kai Carstensen & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Tim Oliver Berg & Christian Breuer & Christian Grimme & Steffen Henzel & Atanas Hristov & Nikolay Hristov & Michael Kleemann & Wolfgang Meister & Johanna Garnitz &, 2013. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2013/2014: Favourable Perspectives for the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(13), pages 17-64, July.
    206. Alexander Eck & Joachim Ragnitz & Simone Scharfe & Christian Thater & Bernhard Wieland, 2014. "Straßen marode, Brücken gesperrt: Eine Bestandsaufnahme zum Thema öffentliche Infrastrukturinvestitionen in Deutschland," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 21(02), pages 15-24, April.
    207. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    208. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    209. Giuseppe Parigi & Roberto Golinelli, 2007. "The use of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP in the short run: an application to the G7 countries," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 77-94.
    210. Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Michael Weber, 2015. "Mindestlohn in Ostdeutschland: Firmen planen Preiserhöhungen und Personalabbau," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, February.
    211. Gerlach, H M Stefan, 1988. "World Business Cycles under Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 621-632, November.
    212. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "Another Look at the Ifo Business Cycle Clock," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 431-443.
    213. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    214. Clinton P. McCully & Brian C. Moyer & Kenneth J. Stewart, 2007. "A Reconciliation between the Consumer Price Index and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index," BEA Papers 0079, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    215. Beatrice N. Vaccara & Victor Zarnowitz, 1978. "Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators," NBER Working Papers 0244, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    216. Karl Brenke, 2014. "Mindestlohn: Zahl der anspruchsberechtigten Arbeitnehmer wird weit unter fünf Millionen liegen," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(5), pages 71-77.
    217. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
    218. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Ifo capacity utilisation – a coincident indicator for business activity in German manufacturing," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
    219. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Economic growth in the system of national accounts: the introduction of the previous-year price base in the German statistics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(05), pages 28-34, March.
    220. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    221. Christian Pierdzioch & Marian Risse & Sebastian Rohloff, 2016. "A boosting approach to forecasting gold and silver returns: economic and statistical forecast evaluation," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(5), pages 347-352, March.
    222. Hylleberg, S. (ed.), 1992. "Modelling Seasonality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198773184, Decembrie.
    223. Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With Mixed-Frequency Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 546-554.
    224. Julius Shiskin, 1957. "Electronic Computers and Business Indicators," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30, pages 219-219.
    225. Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr, 2009. "The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling – A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study," ifo Working Paper Series 65, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    226. Estrella, Arturo, 1998. "A New Measure of Fit for Equations with Dichotomous Dependent Variables," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 198-205, April.
    227. repec:zbw:rwimat:043 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    2. Kai Carstensen & Steffen Henzel & Johannes Mayr & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "IFOCAST: Methods of the Ifo short-term forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(23), pages 15-28, December.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33.
    4. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    5. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with mixed frequencies," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 22-33, November.
    6. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    7. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "The Ifo Business Climate and the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    8. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    9. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2013. "A survey of econometric methods for mixed-frequency data," Economics Working Papers ECO2013/02, European University Institute.
    10. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "ECB Monetary Policy in a Tight Spot – Can More “Forward Guidance” Help?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(22), pages 35-45, November.
    11. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    12. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
    13. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2016. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 349-365.
    14. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
    15. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Construction of Composite Business Cycle Indicators in a Sparse Data Environment," CESifo Working Paper Series 3557, CESifo.
    16. Hall, Viv B & Thomson, Peter, 2022. "A boosted HP filter for business cycle analysis: evidence from New Zealand’s small open economy," Working Paper Series 9473, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    17. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Modugno, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2013. "Now-Casting and the Real-Time Data Flow," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 195-237, Elsevier.
    18. Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Konstruktion von Indikatoren zur Analyse der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität in den Dienstleistungsbereichen," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 55.
    19. Evgenia Kudymowa & Johanna Garnitz & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Ifo World Economic Survey and the Business Cycle in Selected Countries," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 51-57, January.
    20. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2016. "Boosting and Forecasting German Industrial Output: What Does a Closer Look at the Details Tell Us?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(03), pages 30-33, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ifofob:72. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ifooode.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.