An indicator-based short-term forecast for quarterly GDP in the euro area
This paper discusses an approach to estimate euro area GDP quarterly growth over two quarters ahead. The estimates are derived from separate single equations for each quarter to be forecast using OLS including a moving error term. The explanatory variables describe real economic activity or its assessment in opinion surveys, and financial variables, both of the euro area and the US.Â The euro area opinion survey variables are the present business situation in the retail sector and the construction confidence indicator, while the US National Association of Purchasing Managers index of the manufacturing industry reflects the importance of international economic links.Â There are two financial variables. First, the relative yield spread between the euro area and the US. Second, the real effective exchange rate is an indication of the competitive position of euro area exporters
|Date of creation:||Jun 2001|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Inter-institutional relations and communication Unit, B-1049 Brussels|
Fax: +32 2 298.08.23
Web page: http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/index_en.htm
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:euf:ecopap:0154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ECFIN INFO)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.