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Der »Test des Tests« im Handel − eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest

Author

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Manuel Birnbrich
  • Christian Seiler

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima ist ein Konjunkturindikator, der aus den Ergebnissen der monatlichen Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts berechnet wird. Die Antworten zu zwei Fragen gehen in diesen Indikator ein: die Bewertung der aktuellen Geschäftslage sowie die Erwartung hinsichtlich der Geschäftsentwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten. Die Interpretation, was unter Geschäftslage und Geschäftsentwicklung zu verstehen ist, wird dabei bewusst den Befragungsteilnehmern überlassen. Im Frühjahr 2009 führte das ifo Institut eine Sonderumfrage bei den Teilnehmern des ifo Konjunkturtests im Handel durch mit dem Ziel, mehr über die Faktoren und die Hintergründe zu erfahren, die den Unternehmen als Grundlage zur Beantwortung der monatlichen Konjunkturumfragen dienen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für die Beurteilung der aktuellen Geschäftslage und für die Geschäftserwartungen die Determinanten Ertragslage des Unternehmens und Umsatz wesentlich sind. Zudem wird deutlich, dass die beiden Fragen flexibel genug sind, um die Konjunkturentwicklung in verschiedenen Sektoren der Wirtschaft abzugreifen. Zudem zeigen die Angaben in der Metaumfrage, dass der monatliche ifo Konjunkturtest überwiegend von Personen, die an der Spitze der Unternehmen angesiedelt sind, beantwortet wird.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel − eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:62:y:2009:i:21:p:34-41
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    3. Klaus Abberger, 2006. "ifo Geschäftsklima und Produktionsindex im verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(21), pages 42-45, November.
    4. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, December.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Seiler, 2012. "The Data Sets of the LMU-ifo Economics & Business Data Center – A Guide for Researchers," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 132(4), pages 609-618.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. James R Hines Jr & Niklas Potrafke & Marina Riem & Christoph Schinke, 2015. "Inter vivos transfers of ownership in family firms," Working Papers 1523, Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation.
    4. Christian Seiler, 2014. "The determinants of unit non-response in the Ifo Business Survey," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 8(3), pages 161-177, September.
    5. Horst Rottmann & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "A micro data approach to the identification of credit crunches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(17), pages 2423-2441, June.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Matthias Bannert & Andreas Dibiasi, 2014. "Metaumfrage im Dienstleistungssektor," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 8(2), pages 51-62, June.
    7. Carstensen, Kai & Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Time- or State-Dependence? An Analysis of Inflation Dynamics using German Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12170, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    8. Stefan Sauer & Christian Seiler, 2014. "Konjunkturtest im Fokus: Die Beurteilung der Lagerbestände im Handelsgewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(04), pages 41-44, February.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Stefan Sauer & Christian Seiler, 2011. "Der Test des Tests im ifo Konjunkturtest Handel," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52, October.
    10. Stefan Sauer, 2011. "Einzelhandel und Kfz-Handel: Größere Investitionsbudgets," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(17), pages 45-49, September.
    11. Schenkelberg, Heike, 2011. "Why are Prices Sticky? Evidence from Business Survey Data," Discussion Papers in Economics 12158, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    12. Michael Kleemann & Manuel Wiegand, 2014. "Are Real Effects of Credit Supply Overestimated? Bias from Firms' Current Situation and Future Expectations," ifo Working Paper Series 192, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    13. Klepsch, Catharina & Elsas, Ralf, 2016. "How and when do firms adjust their investments toward targets?," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145486, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "ifo Geschäftsklima, Produktion und Ertragslage in der gewerblichen Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, February.
    15. Binding, Garret & Dibiasi, Andreas, 2017. "Exchange rate uncertainty and firm investment plans evidence from Swiss survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 1-27.
    16. Matthias Bannert & Andreas Dibiasi, 2014. "Unveiling Participant Level Determinants of Unit Non-Response in Business Tendency Surveys," KOF Working papers 14-363, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    17. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, March.
    18. Christian Seiler, 2010. "Dynamic Modelling of Nonresponse in Business Surveys," ifo Working Paper Series 93, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    19. Buchheim, Lukas & Link, Sebastian, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," Discussion Papers in Economics 41214, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    20. Christian Seiler, 2013. "Nonresponse in Business Tendency Surveys: Theoretical Discourse and Empirical Evidence," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 52.
    21. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    22. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," DICE Discussion Papers 40, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    23. Müller, Hans Christian, 2011. "Forecast Errors in Undisclosed Management Sales Forecasts: The Disappearance of the Overoptimism Bias," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48683, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Stefan Sauer, 2011. "Großhandel: Steigende Umsätze und schwungvolle Investitionsdynamik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(15), pages 32-35, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturumfrage; Handel; Geschäftsklima; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • L80 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - General

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