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Ifo Business Climate, output and earnings in industry and trade

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade has long been one of the most important leading indicators for economic developments in Germany. In particular the current business assessments and the business expectations - which form the Ifo Business Climate - are used intensively in the analysis of economic activity. This article shows that the business climate is not only a leading indicator for the cyclical component of the development of output in industry and trade, but that it also gives an indication of firms' cyclical earnings situation. In addition, with the help of the analysis of the main components, an overall indicator is constructed whose correlation with the Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade is very high.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Ifo Business Climate, output and earnings in industry and trade," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(03), pages 21-24, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:64:y:2011:i:03:p:21-24
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2011_3_2.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate: A reliable leading indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Survey of the survey in distribution - a meta-survey on the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    4. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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