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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso

    ()

  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Fernando Arias

    ()

  • José David Pulido

    ()

Abstract

Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, fechas de picos y valles que se alternan en la actividad económica determinadas sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cinco ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1980 y 2010 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 5,1 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 4,1 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,1 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 24 series.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 651.

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Date of creation: Apr 2011
Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:651
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Keywords: Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico. Classification JEL: E23; E32.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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  1. Mauricio Avella & Leopoldo Fergusson, 2004. "El Ciclo Económico Enfoques e Ilustraciones Los Ciclos Económicos de Estados Unidos y Colombia," Borradores de Economia 284, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez & Munir Jalil, 2008. "Cronología de los ciclos de negocios recientes en Colombia," REVISTA LECTURAS DE ECONOMÍA, UNIVERSIDAD DE ANTIOQUIA - CIE, June.
  3. Edward E. Leamer, 2008. "What's a Recession, Anyway?," NBER Working Papers 14221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
  5. Arango, Luis E. & Melo, Luis F., 2006. "Expansions and contractions in Brazil, Colombia and Mexico: A view through nonlinear models," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 501-517, August.
  6. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, June.
  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I., 1994. "Real business cycles and the test of the Adelmans," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 405-438, April.
  8. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, June.
  9. Herman Kamil & Jose David Pulido & Jose Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 609, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : II. New directions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 309-341.
  11. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Mauricio Castillo, 1999. "¿Son Estilizadas Las Regularidades Del Ciclo Económico?Una Breve Revisión De La Literatura," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003835, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
  13. Arthur F. Burns, 1961. "New Facts on Business Cycles," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycle Indicators, Volume 1, pages 13-44 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Luis Eduardo Arango Thomas, 1998. "Temporary And Permanent Components Of Colombia'S Outpout," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003549, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  15. Frederick C. Mills, 1936. "Prices in Recession and Recovery: A Survey of Recent Changes," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number mill36-1, June.
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Cited by:

  1. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," Borradores de Economia 861, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Luis Eduardo Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Determinants of consumer credit within a debt constrained framework. Evidence from microdata," Borradores de Economia 912, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Andrés Álvarez & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Job vacancies in Colombia: 1976–2012," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, December.
  4. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
  5. Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz & César Vallejo Mejía & Edgar Caicedo García & Juan Sebastian Amador Torres & Evelyn Yohana Tique Calderón, 2012. "El mercado mundial del café y su impacto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.
  7. J. Sebastián Amador-Torres, 2016. "Finance neutral potential output: an evaluation on an emerging market monetary policy context," Borradores de Economia 958, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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