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Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010

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  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Fernando Arias
  • José David Pulido

Abstract

Se propone una cronología para los ciclos de negocios en la concepción clásica del NBER; esto es, fechas de picos y valles que se alternan en la actividad económica determinadas sin separar las series utilizadas en sus componentes transitorio y permanente. La cronología estimada sugiere que los cinco ciclos completos que se han presentado entre 1980 y 2010 son asimétricos y tienen una duración aproximada de 5,1 años. Las expansiones duran en promedio 4,1 años mientras que las contracciones tardan 1,1 años. Los resultados se derivan de la utilización del índice de difusión acumulado con 24 series.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:651
    DOI: 10.32468/be.651
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Álvarez & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Job vacancies in Colombia: 1976–2012," IZA Journal of Labor & Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," Borradores de Economia 12389, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Determinants of consumer credit within a debt constrained framework. Evidence from microdata," Borradores de Economia 13965, Banco de la Republica.
    4. Amador-Torres, J. Sebastián, 2017. "Finance-neutral potential output: An evaluation in an emerging market monetary policy context," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 389-407.
    5. Andrés González & Segio Ocampo & Julián Pérez & Diego Rodríguez, 2013. "Output Gap and Neutral Interest Measures of Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 231-286, July-Dece.
    6. Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz & Cesar Vallejo Mej�a & Edgar Caicedo Garc�a & Juan Sebastian Amador Torres, 2012. "El mercado mundial del caf� y su impacto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 9612, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Luis E. Arango & Lina Cardona-Sosa, 2015. "Consumer credit performance over the business cycle in Colombia: some empirical facts," Borradores de Economia 12389, Banco de la Republica.
    8. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gait�n Maldonado & Johanna L�pez Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40.
    9. Carlos Gustavo Cano Sanz & César Vallejo Mejía & Edgar Caicedo García & Juan Sebastian Amador Torres & Evelyn Yohana Tique Calderón, 2012. "El mercado mundial del café y su impacto en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 710, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    10. Enrique A. López-Enciso, 2017. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 986, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ciclos de negocios; cronología; difusión; fases; expansión; recesión; valle; pico.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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