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Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis

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Listed:
  • Juan David Valencia-Beltrán

    (Independiente)

Abstract

Using a Markov switching panel, this research analyzes business cycle dynamics in 23 Colombian cities and metropolitan areas. First, we find heterogeneous values by identifying expansion and recession growth rates using employment and economic covariables. Second, cluster analysis groups cities with shared economic patterns and key explanatory factors. Finally, we examine how historical recessions propagate across these clusters. The findings highlight diverse growth rates and common recession factors, providing a comprehensive view of urban economic dynamics. This approach contributes to more effective policy formulation by considering regional variability in economic cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan David Valencia-Beltrán, 2024. "Dynamics of Regional Business Cycles in Colombian Cities: Identification of Growth Rates, Recession Propagation, and Cluster Analysis," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, vol. 27(1), pages 1-45.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000151:022163
    DOI: 10.12804/revistas.urosario.edu.co/e
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    File URL: https://revistas.urosario.edu.co/index.php/economia/article/view/15338
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Viviana Alejandra Alfonso & Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & José David Pulido, 2011. "Ciclos de negocios en Colombia: 1980-2010," Borradores de Economia 651, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Martin Beraja & Erik Hurst & Juan Ospina, 2025. "Erratum: The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 93(5), pages 1-14, September.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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