IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedfwp/88986.html

New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Andres Rodriguez-Clare
  • Mauricio Ulate
  • Jose P. Vasquez

Abstract

There is a growing empirical consensus that trade shocks can have important effects on unemployment and nonemployment across local-labor markets within an economy. This paper introduces downward nominal wage rigidity to an otherwise standard quantitative trade model and shows how this framework can generate changes in unemployment and nonemployment that match those uncovered by the empirical literature studying the “China shock.” We also compare the associated welfare effects predicted by this model with those in the model without unemployment. We find that the China shock leads to average welfare increases in most U.S. states, including many that experience unemployment during the transition. However, nominal rigidities reduce the overall U.S. gains from the China shock between one and two thirds. In addition, there are ten states that experience welfare losses in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity but would have experienced welfare gains without it.

Suggested Citation

  • Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Mauricio Ulate & Jose P. Vasquez, 2020. "New-Keynesian Trade: Understanding the Employment and Welfare Effects of Trade Shocks," Working Paper Series 2020-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:88986
    DOI: 10.24148/wp2020-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/wp2020-32.pdf
    File Function: Full-text PDF
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24148/wp2020-32?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rafael Dix-Carneiro & João Paulo Pessoa & Ricardo Reyes-Heroles & Sharon Traiberman, 2023. "Globalization, Trade Imbalances, and Labor Market Adjustment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(2), pages 1109-1171.
    2. Jackson, Laura E. & Kurt, Ezgi, 2025. "Downward wage rigidity and asymmetric effects of monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    3. Kim, Dongin & Steinbach, Sandro & Zurita, Carlos, 2024. "Deep trade agreements and agri-food global value chain integration," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    4. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Dorn, David & Levell, Peter, 2021. "Trade and Inequality in Europe and the US," CEPR Discussion Papers 16780, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:ces:ceswps:_11654 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Daniel Lind, 2022. "The China Effect on Manufacturing Productivity in the United States and Other High-income Countries," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 42, pages 33-62, Spring.
    8. Jose Pulido, 2022. "Pandemic-induced increases in container freight rates: Assessing their domestic effects in a globalized world," IHEID Working Papers 24-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    9. Andreas M. Fischer & Philipp Herkenhoff & Philip Sauré, 2023. "Identifying Chinese supply shocks: Effects of trade on labor markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 1476-1507, September.
    10. Fadinger, Harald & Herkenhoff, Philipp & Schymik, Jan, 2024. "Reprint of: Quantifying the Germany shock: Structural labor-market reforms and spillovers in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:88986. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.