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Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?

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  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich

Abstract

A geographic cross-sectional fiscal spending multiplier measures the effect of an increase in spending in one region in a monetary union. Empirical studies of such multipliers have proliferated in recent years. In this paper, I review this research and what the evidence implies for national multipliers. Based on an updated analysis of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and a survey of empirical studies, my preferred point estimate for a cross-sectional output multiplier is 1.8. Economic theory of how to map these multipliers into a national multiplier has also advanced. Drawing on the theoretical literature, the paper discusses conditions under which the cross-sectional multiplier provides a rough lower bound for a particular national multiplier, the closed economy zero lower bound multiplier. Putting these elements together, the cross-sectional evidence suggests a national zero lower bound multiplier of about 1.7 or above, at the upper end of most studies based on time series evidence. The paper concludes by offering suggestions for future research on cross-sectional multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2017. "Geographic Cross-Sectional Fiscal Spending Multipliers: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 23577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23577
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. William D. Dupor, 2013. "Creating jobs via the 2009 recovery act: state medicaid grants compared to broadly-directed spending," Working Papers 2013-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    2. Cerqua, Augusto & Pellegrini, Guido, 2018. "Local multipliers at work," MPRA Paper 85326, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Dupor, William D. & Rodrigo , Guerrero, 2017. "The Aggregate and Relative Economic Effects of Medicaid and Medicare Expansions," Working Papers 2017-27, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:151-255 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Eduardo A. Haddad & Natalia Q. Cotarelli, Vinicius A. Vale, 2018. "On the Numerical Structure of Local and Nationwide Government Spending Multipliers: What Can We Learn from the Greek Crisis?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2018_05, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    6. Hollmayr, Josef & Kuckuck, Jan, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers of central, state and local government and of the social security funds in Germany: Evidence of a SVAR," Discussion Papers 28/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Kirill Borusyak & Xavier Jaravel, 2018. "The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States," 2018 Meeting Papers 284, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2018. "Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2018-03, CEPII research center.
    9. Benjamin A. Austin & Edward L. Glaeser & Lawrence H. Summers, 2018. "Jobs for the Heartland: Place-Based Policies in 21st Century America," NBER Working Papers 24548, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. repec:red:issued:18-119 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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