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Jobs multipliers: evidence from a large fiscal stimulus in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Alloza

    (Banco de España)

  • Carlos Sanz

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

We estimate the employment effect of a large fiscal stimulus in Spain (PlanE), in which the national government transferred funds to municipalities to carry out local investment projects. Using a difference-in-difference approach by exploiting variation in the timing of the execution of projects across municipalities, we find that 100,000 euros of stimulus reduced unemployment by 0.62 jobs per year. We allow for possible spatial effects, i.e. the propagation of the stimulus to neighboring municipalities, and find that these are sizable, representing 8.4% of the “local” effect. We also present evidence on the transmission mechanism, finding that the effect was: (i) initially concentrated in the construction and industrial sectors, but later spilled over to the broader economy, (ii) larger for males than females, (iii) larger when the shock represented a higher share of the budget, and (iv) not larger for municipalities headed by more educated mayors. Our estimate of the multiplier falls in the lower range of previous work.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Alloza & Carlos Sanz, 2019. "Jobs multipliers: evidence from a large fiscal stimulus in Spain," Working Papers 1922, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1922
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    File URL: https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/19/Fich/dt1922e.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. Fabra, Natalia & Gutiérrez, Eduardo & Lacuesta, Aitor & Ramos, Roberto, 2024. "Do renewable energy investments create local jobs?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    2. Alexis Habiyaremye & Olebogeng Molewa & Pelontle Lekomanyane, 2022. "Estimating Employment Gains of the Proposed Infrastructure Stimulus Plan in Post-Covid-19 South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 540-567, February.
    3. Priscila Espinosa & Daniel Aparicio-Pérez & José Manuel Pavía & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "On the Impact of Next Generation EU Funds: A Regional Synthetic Control Method Approach," Working Papers 2023/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    4. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 380-394, June.
    5. Solé-Ollé, Albert & Viladecans-Marsal, Elisabet, 2019. "Housing booms and local spending," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    6. Mario Alloza & Víctor González-Díez & Enrique Moral-Benito & Patrocinio Tello-Casas, 2021. "Access to services in rural Spain," Occasional Papers 2122, Banco de España.
    7. Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Giovanna Ciaffi & Santiago José Gahn, 2025. "Le grandi Opere Pubbliche: fiscal multipliers of public infrastructure in Italy (1870–1998)," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 42(1), pages 155-180, April.
    8. Mario Alloza & Víctor González-Díez & Enrique Moral-Benito & Patrocinio Tello-Casas, 2021. "El acceso a servicios en la España rural," Occasional Papers 2122, Banco de España.
    9. Natalia Fabra & Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & Roberto Ramos, 2023. "Do Renewables Create Local Jobs?," Working Papers 2307, Banco de España.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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