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Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan

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  • Taisuke Kameda
  • Ryoichi Namba
  • Takayuki Tsuruga

Abstract

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. The regional fiscal multiplier consists of the prefecture-specific components and a component common across prefectures within the same region, which we interpret as the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on expenditure components. The regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 because of the crowding-in effect on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.

Suggested Citation

  • Taisuke Kameda & Ryoichi Namba & Takayuki Tsuruga, 2019. "Decomposing Local Fiscal Multipliers: Evidence from Japan," Working Papers e143, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcr:wpaper:e143
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    Cited by:

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    3. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Shin-ichi Fukuda & Naoto Soma, 2021. "Evaluation of Japan’s Macro-Fiscal Policy and its Challenges," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(2), pages 1-28, November.
    5. Fukuda, Shin-ichi, 2023. "Evaluation of fiscal policy using alternative GDP data in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Hao-Chen Huang & Chin-Fu Hung & Chi-Lu Peng & Ting-Hsiu Liao, 2022. "Business Income Tax from Profit-Seeking Enterprises and Spatial Autocorrelation: Do Local Economic Characteristics Matter?," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-18, September.

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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • R50 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - General

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