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Fiscal multipliers in Japan

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  • Auerbach, Alan J.
  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate government purchase multipliers for Japan, following the approach used previously for a panel of OECD countries (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2013). This approach allows multipliers to vary smoothly according to the state of the economy and uses real-time forecast data to purge policy innovations of their predictable components. For a sample period extending from 1960 to 2012, estimates for Japan are quite consistent with those previously estimated for the OECD as well as those estimated using a slightly different methodology for the United States (Auerbach and Gorodnichenko, 2012). However, estimates based only on more recent observations are less stable and provide weaker support for the effectiveness of government purchases at stimulating economic activity, particularly in recession, although cyclical patterns in Japan make the dating of recessions a challenge.

Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy, 2017. "Fiscal multipliers in Japan," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 411-421.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:411-421
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rie.2017.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:nbr:nberch:13342 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Posen, Adam S., 2002. "Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 536-558, December.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Maurice Obstfeld, 2005. "The Case for Open-Market Purchases in a Liquidity Trap," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 110-137, March.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, May.
    5. Ricardo J. Caballero & Takeo Hoshi & Anil K. Kashyap, 2008. "Zombie Lending and Depressed Restructuring in Japan," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1943-1977, December.
    6. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Doi, Takero & Hoshi, Takeo & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2011. "Japanese government debt and sustainability of fiscal policy," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 414-433.
    9. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    10. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 2002. "Passive Savers and Fiscal Policy Effectiveness in Japan," Working Paper Series WP02-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    12. Alan J Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Shocks in a Globalized World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(1), pages 177-215, May.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
    2. Ghada Fayad & Roberto Perrelli, 2014. "Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation," IMF Working Papers 14/173, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Raju Huidrom & M. Ayhan Kose & Jamus J. Lim & Franziska L. Ohnsorge, 2016. "Do fiscal multipliers depend on fiscal positions?," CAMA Working Papers 2016-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Joshua K. Hausman & Johannes F. Wieland, 2014. "Abenomics: Preliminary Analysis and Outlook," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 1-76.
    5. Steven Pennings & Esther Perez Ruiz, 2013. "Fiscal Consolidations and Growth; Does Speed Matter?," IMF Working Papers 13/230, International Monetary Fund.
    6. repec:gam:jijfss:v:5:y:2017:i:4:p:26-:d:118051 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Achim Truger, 2015. "The Fiscal Compact, Cyclical Adjustment and the Remaining Leeway for Expansionary Fiscal Policies in the Euro Area," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(2), pages 157-175, June.
    8. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    9. Borsoi, Nicolas da Silva & Teles, Vladimir Kühl, 2018. "Fiscal multipliers in bad times: does the nature of a recession matter?," Textos para discussão 492, FGV/EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
    10. repec:oup:apecpp:v:39:y:2017:i:2:p:313-345. is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; Business cycle; Japan;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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