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Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

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  • Miyamoto, Wataru
  • Nguyen, Thuy Lan
  • Sergeyev, Dmitriy

Abstract

Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period, and 0.6 outside of it. We argue that these results are not driven by the amount of slack in the economy. A simple New Keynesian model can reproduce some features of our empirical findings if the ZLB period is caused by a deflationary trap and government spending is not too persistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Miyamoto, Wataru & Nguyen, Thuy Lan & Sergeyev, Dmitriy, 2016. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," CEPR Discussion Papers 11633, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11633
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal stimulus; government spending; multiplier; zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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