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Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation

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  • Marc Dordal-i-Carreras
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Johannes Wieland

Abstract

Countries rarely hit the zero-lower bound on interest rates, but when they do, these episodes tend to be very long-lived. These two features are difficult to jointly incorporate into macroeconomic models using typical representations of shock processes. We introduce a regime switching representation of risk premium shocks into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model to generate a realistic distribution of ZLB durations. We discuss what different calibrations of this model imply for optimal inflation rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Marc Dordal-i-Carreras & Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Johannes Wieland, 2016. "Infrequent but Long-Lived Zero-Bound Episodes and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," NBER Working Papers 22510, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22510
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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