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Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?

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  • Philippe Andrade
  • Jordi Galí
  • Hervé Le Bihan
  • Julien Matheron

Abstract

We address this question using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model of the Euro Area with trend inflation, imperfect indexation, and a lower bound on the nominal interest rate. In this setup, a decrease in the steady-state real interest rate, r*, increases the probability of hitting the lower bound constraint, which entails signiï¬ cant welfare costs and warrants an adjustment of the monetary policy strategy. Under an unchanged monetary policy rule, an increase in the inflation target of eight tenth the size of the drop in the real natural rate of interest is warranted. Absent an increase in the inflation target, and assuming the effective lower bound prevents the ECB from implementing more aggressive negative interest rate policies, adjusting the monetary strategy requires considering alternative instruments or policy rules, such as committing to make-up for recent, below-target inflation realizations.

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  • Philippe Andrade & Jordi Galí & Hervé Le Bihan & Julien Matheron, 2021. "Should the ECB adjust its strategy in the face of a lower r*?," Economics Working Papers 1767, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1767
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    5. Abbritti, Mirko & Consolo, Agostino & Weber, Sebastian, 2021. "Endogenous growth, downward wage rigidity and optimal inflation," Working Paper Series 2635, European Central Bank.
    6. Eleni Argiri & Ifigeneia Skotida, 2021. "The 2021 review of the monetary policy strategy of the Eurosystem: an economy of forces," Economic Bulletin, Bank of Greece, issue 54, pages 23-57, December.
    7. Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Müller & Sebastian Schmidt, 2021. "The Exchange Rate Insulation Puzzle," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 060, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    8. Elenev, Vadim & Landvoigt, Tim & Shultz, Patrick & van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2021. "Can Monetary Policy Create Fiscal Capacity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 16414, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Consolo, Agostino & Koester, Gerrit & Nickel, Christiane & Porqueddu, Mario & Smets, Frank, 2021. "The need for an inflation buffer in the ECB’s price stability objective – the role of nominal rigidities and inflation differentials," Occasional Paper Series 279, European Central Bank.
    10. Kollmann, Robert & Lubik, Thomas & Roeger, Werner, 2021. "Secular Stagnation, Low Interest Rates and Low Inflation: Causes and Implications for Policy," MPRA Paper 108979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Spitzer, Martin, 2022. "Lower for longer under endogenous technology growth," Research Discussion Papers 6/2022, Bank of Finland.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation target; effective lower bound; monetary policy strategy; euro-area.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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