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Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Edward S. Knotek II
  • Raphael Schoenle

Abstract

Using a daily survey of U.S. households, we study how the Federal Reserve’s announcement of its new strategy of average inflation targeting affected households’ expectations. Starting with the day of the announcement, there is a very small uptick in the minority of households reporting that they had heard news about monetary policy relative to prior to the announcement, but this effect fades within a few days. Those hearing news about the announcement do not seem to have understood the announcement: they are no more likely to correctly identify the Fed’s new strategy than others, nor are their expectations different. When we provide randomly selected households with pertinent information about average inflation targeting, their expectations still do not change in a different way than when households are provided with information about traditional inflation targeting. Even one year after the announcement, U.S. households remain mostly unaware of the change in strategy or its implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Edward S. Knotek II & Raphael Schoenle, 2020. "Average Inflation Targeting and Household Expectations," NBER Working Papers 27836, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27836
    Note: EFG ME
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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