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Trend inflation, wage and price rigidities, and productivity growth

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  • Amano, Robert
  • Moran, Kevin
  • Murchison, Stephen
  • Rennison, Andrew

Abstract

What are the steady-state implications of inflation in a general-equilibrium model with real per capita output growth and staggered nominal price and wage contracts? Surprisingly, a benchmark calibration implies an optimal inflation rate of -1.9 percent. The analysis also shows that trend inflation has important effects on the economy when combined with nominal contracts and real output growth. Steady-state output and welfare losses are quantitatively important even for low values of trend inflation. Further, nominal wage contracting is found to be quantitatively more important than nominal price contracting in generating the results. This conclusion does not arise from price dispersion per se, but from an effect of nominal output growth on the optimal markup of monopolistically competitive labour suppliers. Finally, accounting for productivity growth is found to be important for calculating the welfare costs of inflation. Indeed, the presence of 2 percent productivity growth increases the welfare costs of inflation in the benchmark specification by a factor of four relative to the no-growth case.

Suggested Citation

  • Amano, Robert & Moran, Kevin & Murchison, Stephen & Rennison, Andrew, 2009. "Trend inflation, wage and price rigidities, and productivity growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 353-364, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:3:p:353-364
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Nakata, Taisuke, 2014. "Welfare costs of shifting trend inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-78.
    2. repec:red:issued:15-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Adam, Klaus & Weber, Henning, 2017. "Optimal trend inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 579, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    4. Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise, 2016. "On the Welfare Costs of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 72479, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2016.
    5. Robert Amano & Tom Carter & Kevin Moran, 2012. "Inflation and Growth: A New Keynesian Perspective," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-20, CIRANO.
    6. Mewael Tesfaelassie & Maik Wolters, 2018. "The Impact of Growth on Unemployment in a Low vs. High Inflation Environment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 28, pages 34-50, April.
    7. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Monetary policy and growth with trend inflation and financial frictions," MPRA Paper 54606, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ashraf, Quamrul & Gershman, Boris & Howitt, Peter, 2017. "Banks, market organization, and macroeconomic performance: An agent-based computational analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 143-180.
    9. Katsunori Yamada & Masayuki Sato & Yasuhiro Nakamoto, 2009. "Measurement of Social Preference from Utility-Based Choice Experiments," ISER Discussion Paper 0759, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    10. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Non-linear effects of the U.S. Monetary Policy in the Long Run," MPRA Paper 57770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2011. "Trend growth and the dynamic effects of government spending," Kiel Working Papers 1678, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    12. Weber, Henning, 2013. "Learning By Doing in New Firms and the Optimal Rate of Inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79761, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2016. "The impact of disembodied technological progress on working hours," Kiel Working Papers 2026, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    14. Guido Ascari & Argia M. Sbordone, 2014. "The Macroeconomics of Trend Inflation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 679-739, September.
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    16. Wabenga Yango, James & Nlemfu Mukoko, J.Blaise, 2015. "Markups, Trend positif d’inflation et Coûts en bien-être
      [Markups, positive inflation trend and welfare costs]
      ," MPRA Paper 71686, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Feb 2016.
    17. Ikeda, Daisuke, 2015. "Optimal inflation rates with the trending relative price of investment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 20-33.
    18. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael, 2015. "Trend growth, unemployment and optimal monetary policy," Kiel Working Papers 2003, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Tesfaselassie, Mewael, 2014. "Growth and unemployment in the presence of trend inflation," Kiel Working Papers 1978, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    20. Nlemfu Mukoko, Jean Blaise, 2015. "The Cyclical Behavior of the Markups in the New Keynesian Models," MPRA Paper 72478, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2016.
    21. Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2013. "Trend productivity growth and the government spending multiplier," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 197-207.
    22. Claudio Cesaroni, 2017. "Optimal Long-Run Inflation and the Informal Economy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 46, Bank of Lithuania.
    23. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Rhys R. Mendes, 2015. "The Optimal Level of the Inflation Target: A Selective Review of the Literature and Outstanding Issues," Discussion Papers 15-8, Bank of Canada.
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