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Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world

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  • Boris Hofmann
  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Benoit Mojon
  • Athanasios Orphanides

Abstract

We analyse fiscal and monetary policy interactions when interest rate policy is hampered by the zero lower bound (ZLB) in an environment where expectations are formed with perpetual learning. The ZLB induces a deterioration of economic performance and raises the risk of persistent low ation that can disanchor in ation expectations and lead to debt de ation. Systematic use of quantitative easing (QE) can partially substitute for interest rate easing and, if sufficiently aggressive, can maintain average in ation in line with the central bank's goal. By compressing term premia on longterm interest rates, QE creates fiscal space that facilitates expansionary fiscal policy and reduces debt-de ation risk. The ZLB can be counteracted with less aggressive QE if mildly negative policy rates are feasible, if more countercyclical fiscal policy can be activated, or if the central bank can credibly communicate a clear in ation goal. Timidity in implementing QE and excessively debt-averse fiscal policies are counterproductive.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Hofmann & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Benoit Mojon & Athanasios Orphanides, 2021. "Fiscal and monetary policy interactions in a low interest rate world," BIS Working Papers 954, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:954
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    4. Oriola, Hugo, 2023. "Political monetary cycles: An empirical study," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Pierre L Siklos, 2022. "Monetary, fiscal and demographic interactions in Japan: impact and a comparative assessment," Working Papers halshs-03776217, HAL.
    6. Ahmed, Rashad & Borio, Claudio & Disyatat, Piti & Hofmann, Boris, 2024. "Losing traction? The real effects of monetary policy when interest rates are low," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Hugo Oriola & Matthieu Picault, 2023. "Opportunistic Political Central Bank Coverage: Does media coverage of ECB's Monetary Policy Impacts German Political Parties' Popularity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-30, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
    9. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Gong Cheng & Andrea Consiglio & Stavros A. Zenios, 2022. "Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases," BIS Working Papers 1034, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Pongpitch Amatyakul & Tosapol Apaitan & Savaphol Hiruntiaranakul & Nuwat Nookhwun, 2021. "Revisiting Thailand's Monetary Policy Model for an Integrated Policy Analysis," PIER Discussion Papers 164, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    zero lower bound; fiscal policy; debt de ation; quantitative easing; perpetual learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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