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Losing traction? The real effects of monetary policy when interest rates are low

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Listed:
  • Ahmed, Rashad
  • Borio, Claudio
  • Disyatat, Piti
  • Hofmann, Boris

Abstract

Based on a panel of 18 advanced countries starting in 1985, we find that monetary transmission to economic activity is substantially weaker when interest rates are low. The results hold when controlling for potential confounding non-linearities associated with debt levels and the business cycle as well as for the trend decline in equilibrium interest rates. These findings suggest that the observed flattening of the Phillips curve has gone hand in hand with a steepening of the IS curve as interest rates remained persistently low, making monetary policy trade-offs more challenging.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Rashad & Borio, Claudio & Disyatat, Piti & Hofmann, Boris, 2024. "Losing traction? The real effects of monetary policy when interest rates are low," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:141:y:2024:i:c:s0261560623002000
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102999
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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves & Serena Ionta, 2023. "Monetary Policy Surprise Shocks under Different Fiscal Regimes: A Panel Analysis of the Euro Area," CESifo Working Paper Series 10627, CESifo.
    2. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Back to the Future: Intellectual Challenges for Monetary Policy," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(4), pages 273-287, December.
    3. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    4. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & James Yetman & Egon Zakrajsek, 2023. "The two-regime view of inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 133.
    5. Claudio Borio, 2021. "Navigating by r*: safe or hazardous?," BIS Working Papers 982, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Low interest rates; Monetary transmission mechanism;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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