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Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates

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  • Massimo Ferrari
  • Jonathan Kearns
  • Andreas Schrimpf

Abstract

We show that the FX impact of monetary policy has been growing significantly. We use a high-frequency event study of the joint response of fixed income instruments and exchange rates to monetary policy news from seven major central banks spanning 2004-2015. News affecting short maturity bonds have the strongest impact, highlighting the relevance of communication regarding the path of future policy. The FX impact of monetary policy is state-dependent and is stronger the lower the level of interest rates. A greater adjustment burden falls onto the exchange rate, as rates are increasingly constrained by the effective lower bound.

Suggested Citation

  • Massimo Ferrari & Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," BIS Working Papers 626, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:626
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    Cited by:

    1. Cieslak, Anna & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2019. "Non-monetary news in central bank communication," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 293-315.
    2. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    3. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    4. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2019. "Institutional Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 1246, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. ter Ellen, Saskia & Jansen, Edvard & Midthjell, Nina Larsson, 2020. "ECB Spillovers and domestic monetary policy effectiveness in small open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    6. Malamud, Semyon & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2018. "An Intermediation-Based Model of Exchange Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 13182, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Daniel M. Rees, 2018. "International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2018/114, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Cormac Cawley & Marie Finnegan, 2019. "Transmission Channels of Central Bank Asset Purchases in the Irish Economy," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(4), pages 1-25, September.
    9. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2020. "Bond Risk Premia and The Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(S2), pages 497-520, December.
    10. Oliver Holtemöller & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Boreum Kwak, 2020. "Exchange Rates and the Information Channel of Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1906, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Martina Cecioni, 2018. "ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1172, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Eren, Egemen & Malamud, Semyon, 2018. "Dominant Currency Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 13391, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Egemen Eren & Semyon Malamud, 2019. "Dominant currency debt," BIS Working Papers 783, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Enzo Rossi & Vincent Wolff, 2020. "Spillovers to exchange rates from monetary and macroeconomic communications events," Working Papers 2020-18, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Kugler, Peter, 2020. "The Short-Run Impact of Interest Rates on Exchange Rates: Results for the Swiss franc Against the Euro and US Dollar from Daily Data 2001-2011," Working papers 2020/01, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    16. Mr. Machiko Narita & Mr. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Umang Rawat & Federico Grinberg & Shujaat Khan & Mr. R. G Gelos, 2019. "Has Higher Household Indebtedness Weakened Monetary Policy Transmission?," IMF Working Papers 2019/011, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Friederike Niepmann & Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr, 2018. "Global Investors, the Dollar, and U.S. Credit Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 7288, CESifo.
    18. Matthys, Thomas & Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Unconventional monetary policy and bank risk taking," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    19. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Steven B. Kamin & Canlin Li & Marius del Giudice Rodriguez, 2018. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy : Conventional Policy vs. Quantitative Easing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1234, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. Bubeck, Johannes & Habib, Maurizio Michael & Manganelli, Simone, 2018. "The portfolio of euro area fund investors and ECB monetary policy announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 103-126.
    21. Kristin Forbes, 2018. "Monetary Policy at the Effective Lower Bound: Less Potent? More International? More Sticky?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 521-541.
    22. Illes, Anamaria & Lombardi, Marco J. & Mizen, Paul, 2019. "The divergence of bank lending rates from policy rates after the financial crisis: The role of bank funding costs," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 117-141.
    23. Franz, Thorsten, 2020. "Central bank information shocks and exchange rates," Discussion Papers 13/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Fabian Fink & Lukas Frei & Thomas Maag & Tanja Zehnder, 2020. "The impact of SNB monetary policy on the Swiss franc and longer-term interest rates," Working Papers 2020-01, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rates; Unconventional Monetary Policy; Forward Guidance; Event Study; High Frequency Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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