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The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy

Author

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  • Masazumi Hattori
  • Andreas Schrimpf
  • Vladyslav Sushko

Abstract

We evaluate the response of perceived tail risks in financial markets to the implementation of unconventional monetary policy by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Using information from out-of-money equity index options, we find that perceived risks decline significantly in response to both policy announcements and actual asset purchases. The announcement effects are strongest specifically for downside risk measures rather than simple measures of volatility (e.g. the VIX). The impact of actual purchases is strongest when driven by simultaneous expansion and the duration extension of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. These effects of both announcements and purchases have been variable over time and particularly pronounced during the latest policy phases implemented in 2012, a period also coinciding with the Federal Reserve's more extensive use of forward guidance about short-term rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2013. "The response of tail risk perceptions to unconventional monetary policy," BIS Working Papers 425, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:425
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    2. Sushanta K Mallick & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2017. "Market volatility, monetary policy and the term premium," BIS Working Papers 606, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2014. "Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy on Financial Institutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(1 (Spring), pages 155-227.
    4. Anene, Dominic & D'Amico, Stefania, 2017. "A Tale of Four Tails: Inflation, the Policy Rate, Longer-Term Rates, and Stock Prices," Working Paper Series WP-2017-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. repec:bla:jecsur:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:678-711 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Massimo Ferrari & Jonathan Kearns & Andreas Schrimpf, 2017. "Monetary policy's rising FX impact in the era of ultra-low rates," BIS Working Papers 626, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Richhild Moessner & David-Jan Jansen & Jakob de Haan, 2017. "Communication About Future Policy Rates In Theory And Practice: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(3), pages 678-711, July.
    8. repec:rba:rbaacv:acv2017-04 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Lo Duca, Marco & Adam, Tomáš, 2017. "Modeling euro area bond yields using a time-varying factor model," Working Paper Series 2012, European Central Bank.
    10. Peter Tillmann, 2014. "Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks and the Spillovers to Emerging Markets," Working Papers 182014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    11. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Semyon Malamud & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "Intermediation Markups and Monetary Policy Passthrough," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 16-75, Swiss Finance Institute.
    13. repec:eee:finana:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:281-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Luis Gonzales C. & Daniel Oda Z., 2015. "Medición del Riesgo (Neutral) Cambiario Chileno: Incorporación de la Información de Mercado de las Opciones," Notas de Investigación Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 18(3), pages 90-103, December.
    15. Apostolou, Apostolos & Beirne, John, 2017. "Volatility spillovers of Federal Reserve and ECB balance sheet expansions to emerging market economies," Working Paper Series 2044, European Central Bank.
    16. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.), Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates Reserve Bank of Australia.
    17. Bhattarai, Saroj & Neely, Christopher J., 2016. "A Survey of the Empirical Literature on U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 2016-21, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    18. Dimitrios Bakas & Athanasios Triantafyllou, 2017. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks on the Volatility of Commodity Prices," Working Paper series 17-31, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unconventional monetary policy; Tail risk; Event study; Bayesian time-varying parameter VARs;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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