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Evolution of Market Uncertainty around Earnings Announcements

  • Isakov, D.
  • Perignon, C.

This paper investigates, theoretically and empirically, the dynamic of the implied volatility (ISD) around earnings announcements dates. The volatility implied in option prices can be interpreted as the market's expected level of volatility over the remaining life of the option. In this framework the paper proposes a theoretical model of the evolution of the ISD that takes into accound two well-known features of the instantaneous volatility: volatility clustering and the leverage effect. The model indicates that the ISD should decrease after an earnings announcement except after a bad news where it should be stable or even increase. An empirical investigation is conducted on the Swiss market over the period 1989-1998.The results confirm the main implications of the theoretical model.

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Paper provided by Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Universite de Geneve- in its series Papers with number 99.12.

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Length: 21 pages
Date of creation: 1999
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fth:ehecge:99.12
Contact details of provider: Postal: Suisse; Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales, Universite de Geneve, faculte des SES. 102 Bb. Carl-Vogt CH - 1211 Geneve 4, Suisse
Phone: (+ 41 22) 705-8263
Fax: (+ 41 22) 705-8293
Web page: http://www.unige.ch/gsem/
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  1. Donders, Monique W. M. & Vorst, Ton C. F., 1996. "The impact of firm specific news on implied volatilities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1447-1461, November.
  2. Heynen, Ronald & Kemna, Angelien & Vorst, Ton, 1994. "Analysis of the Term Structure of Implied Volatilities," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(01), pages 31-56, March.
  3. Monique, W.M. Donders & Roy Kouwenberg & Ton, C. F. Vorst, 2000. "Options and earnings announcements: an empirical study of volatility, trading volume, open interest and liquidity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(2), pages 149-171.
  4. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
  5. Sheikh, Aamir M, 1989. " Stock Splits, Volatility Increases, and Implied Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1361-72, December.
  6. Robert C. Merton, 1973. "Theory of Rational Option Pricing," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 4(1), pages 141-183, Spring.
  7. Bailey, Warren Bernard, 1988. "Money Supply Announcements and the Ex Ante Volatility of Asset Prices," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(4), pages 611-20, November.
  8. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
  9. Jin-Chuan Duan, 1995. "The Garch Option Pricing Model," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 13-32.
  10. Kate Adjaoute & Martin Bruand & Rajna Gibson-Asner, 1998. "On the Predictability of the Stock Market Volatility: Does History Matter?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 4(3), pages 293-319.
  11. Levy, Haim & Yoder, James A, 1993. "The Behavior of Option Implied Standard Deviations around Merger and Acquisition Announcements," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 28(2), pages 261-72, May.
  12. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-54, May-June.
  13. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
  14. Hull, John C & White, Alan D, 1987. " The Pricing of Options on Assets with Stochastic Volatilities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 42(2), pages 281-300, June.
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