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Evolution of Market Uncertainty around Earnings Announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Dušan Isakov

    (HEC-University of Geneva and FAME)

  • Christophe Pérignon

    (Department of Economics-University of Geneva and FAME)

Abstract

This paper investigates theoretically and empirically the dynamics of the implied volatility (or implied standard deviation - ISD) around earnings announcements dates. The volatility implied by option prices can be interpreted as the level of volatility expected by the market over the remaining life of the option. We propose a theoretical framework for the evolution of the ISD that takes into account two well-known features of the instantaneous volatility: volatility clustering and the leverage effect. In this context, the ISD should decrease after an earnings announcement but the post-announcement ISD path depends on the content of the earnings announcement: good news or bad news. An empirical investigation is conducted on the Swiss market over the period 1989-1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Dušan Isakov & Christophe Pérignon, 2000. "Evolution of Market Uncertainty around Earnings Announcements," FAME Research Paper Series rp15, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  • Handle: RePEc:fam:rpseri:rp15
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thaddeus Neururer & George Papadakis & Edward J. Riedl, 2016. "Tests of investor learning models using earnings innovations and implied volatilities," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 400-437, June.
    2. Pei Peter Lung & Pisun Xu, 2014. "Tipping and Option Trading," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(3), pages 671-701, September.
    3. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Skinner, Douglas J. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2009. "Earnings guidance and market uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 90-109, October.
    4. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    5. Tim Leung & Marco Santoli, 2014. "Accounting for earnings announcements in the pricing of equity options," Journal of Financial Engineering (JFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(04), pages 1-46.
    6. Atilgan, Yigit, 2014. "Volatility spreads and earnings announcement returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 205-215.
    7. Masazumi Hattori & Andreas Schrimpf & Vladyslav Sushko, 2016. "The Response of Tail Risk Perceptions to Unconventional Monetary Policy," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 111-136, April.
    8. Baik, Bok & Kang, Hyoung-Goo & Kim, Young Jun, 2013. "Volatility arbitrage around earnings announcements: Evidence from the Korean equity linked warrants market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 109-130.
    9. Pascal Dumontier & Bernard Raffournier, 2002. "Accounting and capital markets: a survey of the European evidence," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 119-151.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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