IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finmar/v40y2018icp75-91.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Borochin, Paul A.
  • Cicon, James E.
  • DeLisle, R. Jared
  • Price, S. McKay

Abstract

Quarterly earnings conference calls convey fundamental information, as well as manager and analyst opinion about the firm. We examine how market uncertainty regarding firm valuation is affected by conference call tones. Using textual analysis of all publicly available earnings calls (2002–2012) for U.S. firms, we find measures of conference call tones are negatively related to measures of firm value uncertainty from the equity options market. Overall, while value uncertainty is more sensitive to analyst tones than manager tones, differences between analyst and manager tones are strongly associated with increases in value uncertainty. Tone spreads convey important signals to market participants.

Suggested Citation

  • Borochin, Paul A. & Cicon, James E. & DeLisle, R. Jared & Price, S. McKay, 2018. "The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 75-91.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:40:y:2018:i:c:p:75-91
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2017.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1386418117301143
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.finmar.2017.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David F. Larcker & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2012. "Detecting Deceptive Discussions in Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 495-540, May.
    2. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "The Persistence of Volatility and Stock Market Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1142-1151, December.
    3. Teoh, Siew Hong & Hwang, Chuan Yang, 1991. "Nondisclosure and Adverse Disclosure as Signals of Firm Value," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(2), pages 283-313.
    4. Isakov, Dusan & Perignon, Christophe, 2001. "Evolution of market uncertainty around earnings announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1769-1788, September.
    5. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    6. Stephan Hollander & Maarten Pronk & Erik Roelofsen, 2010. "Does Silence Speak? An Empirical Analysis of Disclosure Choices During Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 531-563, June.
    7. Rogers, Jonathan L. & Skinner, Douglas J. & Van Buskirk, Andrew, 2009. "Earnings guidance and market uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 90-109, October.
    8. Marina DRUZ & Alexander F. WAGNER & Alexander Richard J. ZECKHAUSER, 2015. "Tips and Tells from Managers: How Analysts and the Market Read Between the Lines of Conference Calls," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 15-02, Swiss Finance Institute.
    9. Bethel, Jennifer E., 2007. "Recent changes in disclosure regulation: Description and evidence," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2-3), pages 335-342, June.
    10. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    11. Bushee, Brian J. & Matsumoto, Dawn A. & Miller, Gregory S., 2003. "Open versus closed conference calls: the determinants and effects of broadening access to disclosure," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 149-180, January.
    12. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2014. "Measuring Readability in Financial Disclosures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(4), pages 1643-1671, August.
    13. Frankel, R & Johnson, M & Skinner, DJ, 1999. "An empirical examination of conference calls as a voluntary disclosure medium," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 133-150.
    14. Brown, Stephen & Hillegeist, Stephen A. & Lo, Kin, 2004. "Conference calls and information asymmetry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 343-366, September.
    15. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1997. "Industry costs of equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 153-193, February.
    16. Nicolae Garleanu & Lasse Heje Pedersen & Allen M. Poteshman, 2009. "Demand-Based Option Pricing," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(10), pages 4259-4299, October.
    17. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    18. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "The Internet and the Investor," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(1), pages 41-54, Winter.
    19. Patell, James M. & Wolfson, Mark A., 1979. "Anticipated information releases reflected in call option prices," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(2), pages 117-140, August.
    20. Patell, Jm & Wolfson, Ma, 1981. "The Ex Ante And Ex Post Price Effects Of Quarterly Earnings Announcements Reflected In Option And Stock-Prices," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 434-458.
    21. Li, Feng, 2008. "Annual report readability, current earnings, and earnings persistence," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2-3), pages 221-247, August.
    22. Price, S. McKay & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R. & Bliss, Barbara A., 2012. "Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 992-1011.
    23. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    24. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:2:p:711-753 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Veronesi, Pietro, 1999. "Stock Market Overreaction to Bad News in Good Times: A Rational Expectations Equilibrium Model," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 975-1007.
    26. Skinner, Douglas J., 2003. "Should firms disclose everything to everybody? A discussion of "Open vs. closed conference calls: the determinants and effects of broadening access to disclosure"," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-3), pages 181-187, January.
    27. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    28. Braun, Phillip A & Nelson, Daniel B & Sunier, Alain M, 1995. "Good News, Bad News, Volatility, and Betas," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1575-1603, December.
    29. Paul Brockman & James E. Cicon & Xu Li & S. McKay Price, 2017. "Words versus Deeds: Evidence from Post-Call Manager Trades," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 965-994, December.
    30. Hentschel, Ludger, 2003. "Errors in Implied Volatility Estimation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 779-810, December.
    31. Kaushik I. Amin & Charles M. C. Lee, 1997. "Option Trading, Price Discovery, and Earnings News Dissemination," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 153-192, June.
    32. Canina, Linda & Figlewski, Stephen, 1993. "The Informational Content of Implied Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(3), pages 659-681.
    33. Richard Lambert & Christian Leuz & Robert E. Verrecchia, 2007. "Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 385-420, May.
    34. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    35. Lang, M & Lundholm, R, 1993. "Cross-Sectional Determinants Of Analyst Ratings Of Corporate Disclosures," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 246-271.
    36. S. Price & Jesus Salas & C. Sirmans, 2015. "Governance, Conference Calls and CEO Compensation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(2), pages 181-206, February.
    37. Duchin, Ran & Matsusaka, John G. & Ozbas, Oguzhan, 2010. "When are outside directors effective?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 195-214, May.
    38. Jeffrey Hales & Xi (Jason) Kuang & Shankar Venkataraman, 2011. "Who Believes the Hype? An Experimental Examination of How Language Affects Investor Judgments," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(1), pages 223-255, March.
    39. Blau, Benjamin M. & DeLisle, Jared R. & Price, S. McKay, 2015. "Do sophisticated investors interpret earnings conference call tone differently than investors at large? Evidence from short sales," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 203-219.
    40. Tim Loughran & Bill Mcdonald, 2011. "When Is a Liability Not a Liability? Textual Analysis, Dictionaries, and 10‐Ks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(1), pages 35-65, February.
    41. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    42. Ederington, Louis H. & Lee, Jae Ha, 1996. "The Creation and Resolution of Market Uncertainty: The Impact of Information Releases on Implied Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 513-539, December.
    43. John R. Nofsinger & Brian Prucyk, 2003. "Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 315-345, April.
    44. Douglas J. Skinner, 1997. "Do Options Markets Improve Informational Efficiency?," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 14(2), pages 193-201, June.
    45. James C. Brau & James Cicon & Grant McQueen, 2016. "Soft Strategic Information and IPO Underpricing," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, January.
    46. Chan, K C, 1988. "On the Contrarian Investment Strategy," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(2), pages 147-163, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Cong, Yunyu & Sun, Fangfang & Wang, Fusheng & Ye, Qiang, 2022. "Information assimilation and stock return synchronicity: Evidence from an investor relations management platform," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    2. Mathur, Aakriti & Sengupta, Rajeswari & Pratap, Bhanu, 2024. "Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns: The role of pandemic-driven uncertainty," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Aakriti Mathur & Rajeswari Sengupta & Bhanu Pratap, 2022. "Saved by the bell? Equity market responses to surprise Covid-19 lockdowns and central bank interventions," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2022-001, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    4. Yu Zhao & Shaopeng Wei & Yu Guo & Qing Yang & Xingyan Chen & Qing Li & Fuzhen Zhuang & Ji Liu & Gang Kou, 2022. "Combining Intra-Risk and Contagion Risk for Enterprise Bankruptcy Prediction Using Graph Neural Networks," Papers 2202.03874, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    5. Loughran, Tim & McDonald, Bill & Pragidis, Ioannis, 2019. "Assimilation of oil news into prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 105-118.
    6. Bassyouny, Hesham & Abdelfattah, Tarek & Tao, Lei, 2022. "Narrative disclosure tone: A review and areas for future research," Journal of International Accounting, Auditing and Taxation, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    7. Perico Ortiz, Daniel & Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2023. "A topic modeling perspective on investor uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    8. Devrimi Kaya & Christian Maier & Tobias Böhmer, 2020. "Empirische Kapitalmarktforschung zu Conference Calls: Eine Literaturanalyse [Empirical Capital Market Research on Conference Calls: A Literature Review]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 183-212, June.
    9. Shuyu Zhang & Walter Aerts & Dunli Zhang & Zishan Chen, 2022. "Positive tone and initial coin offering," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(2), pages 2237-2266, June.
    10. Ardia, David & Bluteau, Keven & Boudt, Kris, 2022. "Media abnormal tone, earnings announcements, and the stock market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Xi Fu & Xiaoxi Wu & Zhifang Zhang, 2021. "The Information Role of Earnings Conference Call Tone: Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 643-660, October.
    12. Maciej Wujec, 2021. "Analysis of the Financial Information Contained in the Texts of Current Reports: A Deep Learning Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Zhang, Shengpeng & Li, Yaokuang & Liang, Ruixin & He, Yu, 2024. "Does management tone matter in information disclosure? Evidence from IPO online roadshows in the SSE STAR market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    14. Hrazdil, Karel & Li, Xin & Suwanyangyuan, Nattavut, 2022. "CEO happiness and forecasting," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    15. Renato Camodeca & Alex Almici & Umberto Sagliaschi, 2018. "Sustainability Disclosure in Integrated Reporting: Does It Matter to Investors? A Cheap Talk Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-34, November.
    16. Bhagwat, Vineet & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2024. "Task-oriented speech and information processing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Devrimi Kaya & Christian Maier & Tobias Böhmer, 2020. "Empirische Kapitalmarktforschung zu Conference Calls: Eine Literaturanalyse [Empirical Capital Market Research on Conference Calls: A Literature Review]," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 72(2), pages 183-212, June.
    2. Blau, Benjamin M. & DeLisle, Jared R. & Price, S. McKay, 2015. "Do sophisticated investors interpret earnings conference call tone differently than investors at large? Evidence from short sales," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 203-219.
    3. Michał Dzieliński & Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser, 2017. "Straight Talkers and Vague Talkers: The Effects of Managerial Style in Earnings Conference Calls," NBER Working Papers 23425, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Andrew Buskirk, 2012. "Disclosure frequency and information asymmetry," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 411-440, May.
    5. Xi Fu & Xiaoxi Wu & Zhifang Zhang, 2021. "The Information Role of Earnings Conference Call Tone: Evidence from Stock Price Crash Risk," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 643-660, October.
    6. Arslan-Ayaydin, Özgür & Boudt, Kris & Thewissen, James, 2016. "Managers set the tone: Equity incentives and the tone of earnings press releases," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 132-147.
    7. Francois Brochet & Kalin Kolev & Alina Lerman, 2018. "Information transfer and conference calls," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 907-957, September.
    8. Wen Jin & Joshua Livnat & Yuan Zhang, 2012. "Option Prices Leading Equity Prices: Do Option Traders Have an Information Advantage?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 401-432, May.
    9. Perico Ortiz, Daniel & Schnaubelt, Matthias & Seifert, Oleg, 2023. "A topic modeling perspective on investor uncertainty," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 04/2023, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    10. Jeong‐Bon Kim & Jeff J. Wang & Eliza Xia Zhang, 2021. "Does real earnings smoothing reduce investors’ perceived risk?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(9-10), pages 1560-1595, October.
    11. Chen, Zhenhua & Loftus, Serena, 2019. "Multi-method evidence on investors’ reactions to managers’ self-inclusive language," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    12. Blankespoor, Elizabeth & deHaan, Ed & Marinovic, Iván, 2020. "Disclosure processing costs, investors’ information choice, and equity market outcomes: A review," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2).
    13. Bhagwat, Vineet & Shirley, Sara E. & Stark, Jeffrey R., 2024. "Task-oriented speech and information processing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    14. Allee, Kristian D. & Do, Chuong & Sterin, Mikhail, 2021. "Product market competition, disclosure framing, and casting in earnings conference calls," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1).
    15. Price, S. McKay & Doran, James S. & Peterson, David R. & Bliss, Barbara A., 2012. "Earnings conference calls and stock returns: The incremental informativeness of textual tone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 992-1011.
    16. Brian J. Bushee & Ian D. Gow & Daniel J. Taylor, 2018. "Linguistic Complexity in Firm Disclosures: Obfuscation or Information?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 85-121, March.
    17. Frankel, Richard & Jennings, Jared & Lee, Joshua, 2016. "Using unstructured and qualitative disclosures to explain accruals," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 209-227.
    18. Truong, Cameron & Corrado, Charles & Chen, Yangyang, 2012. "The options market response to accounting earnings announcements," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 423-450.
    19. Max Schreder & Pawel Bilinski, 2022. "Information Quality and the Expected Rate of Return: A Structural Equation Modelling Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 29(2), pages 139-170, June.
    20. Jeffrey L. Callen & Matthew R. Lyle, 2020. "The term structure of implied costs of equity capital," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 342-404, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings conference calls; Disclosure; Textual analysis; Scripting; Option implied volatility; Uncertainty; Price discovery;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:40:y:2018:i:c:p:75-91. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/finmar .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.