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Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases

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  • John R. Nofsinger
  • Brian Prucyk

Abstract

In this article, we examine the impact of 21 different types of scheduled macroeconomic news announcements on S&P 100 stock‐index option volume and implied volatility. We find that there is a 2‐h delay after the announcement before volume increases. However, there is an immediate increase in volatility, which slowly dissipates over several hours. Further analysis shows that most of the high volume and volatility after announcements come from the announcements that are considered bad news. That is, bad news creates high volatility and high volume, whereas good news elicits lower volume and is not associated with higher volatility. These results are not consistent with the predictions of any one model. We also find that the announcements that cause the largest reaction in the equity option market are Consumer Credit, Consumer Spending, Factory Inventories, NAPM, and Non‐Farm Payrolls. Six other announcements elicit a mild response. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:315–345, 2003

Suggested Citation

  • John R. Nofsinger & Brian Prucyk, 2003. "Option volume and volatility response to scheduled economic news releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 315-345, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jfutmk:v:23:y:2003:i:4:p:315-345
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    Cited by:

    1. Jieun Lee & Doojin Ryu, 2019. "The impacts of public news announcements on intraday implied volatility dynamics," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 656-685, June.
    2. Borochin, Paul A. & Cicon, James E. & DeLisle, R. Jared & Price, S. McKay, 2018. "The effects of conference call tones on market perceptions of value uncertainty," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 75-91.
    3. Mengyu Zhang & Thanos Verousis & Iordanis Kalaitzoglou, 2022. "Information and the arrival rate of option trading volume," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 605-644, April.
    4. Cuadro-Sáez, Lucía & Moreno, Manuel, 2007. "GARCH modeling of robust market returns," Kiel Advanced Studies Working Papers 440, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    5. Adrian Fernandez‐Perez & Raquel López, 2023. "The effect of macroeconomic news announcements on the implied volatility of commodities: The role of survey releases," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1499-1530, November.
    6. Avinash & T. Mallikarjunappa, 2020. "Informational Role of Open Interest and Transaction Volume of Options: A Meta-Analytic Review," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 9(4), pages 275-285, December.
    7. Imad Moosa & Sulaiman Al-Abduljader, 2010. "A test of the news model of stock price determination in an emerging market: the case of Kuwait," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 397-405.
    8. Arias-Calluari, Karina & Najafi, Morteza. N. & Harré, Michael S. & Tang, Yaoyue & Alonso-Marroquin, Fernando, 2022. "Testing stationarity of the detrended price return in stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 587(C).
    9. Sylwia Nowak, 2008. "How Do Public Announcements Affect The Frequency Of Trading In U.S. Airline Stocks?," CAMA Working Papers 2008-38, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Bennani, Hamza, 2020. "Central bank communication in the media and investor sentiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 431-444.
    11. Laura Wallenius & Elena Fedorova & Sheraz Ahmed & Mikael Collan, 2017. "Surprise Effect of Euro Area Macroeconomic Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(1), pages 55-71.
    12. Lai, Ya-Wen, 2017. "Macroeconomic factors and index option returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 452-477.
    13. Yingli Wang & Chang Lu & Xiaoguang Yang & Qingpeng Zhang, 2023. "Asymmetric responses to Purchasing Managers' Index announcements in China's stock returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 2937-2955, July.
    14. Natividad Blasco & Pilar Corredor & Rafael Santamaría, 2010. "Does informed trading occur in the options market? Some revealing clues," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(3), pages 555-579, September.
    15. Brian L. Dos Santos & Zhiqiang (Eric) Zheng & Vijay S. Mookerjee & Hongyu Chen, 2012. "Are New IT-Enabled Investment Opportunities Diminishing for Firms?," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(2), pages 287-305, June.
    16. Laura Wallenius & Elena Fedorova & Sheraz Ahmed & Mikael Collan, . "Surprise Effect of Euro Area Macroeconomic Announcements on CIVETS Stock Markets," Prague Economic Papers, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 0, pages 1-17.
    17. López, Raquel, 2018. "The behaviour of energy-related volatility indices around scheduled news announcements: Implications for variance swap investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 356-364.
    18. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2015. "Trading breaks and asymmetric information: The option markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 390-404.

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