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A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing

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  • Fratzscher, Marcel
  • Lo Duca, Marco
  • Straub, Roland

Abstract

The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve’s unconventional monetary policy measures since 2007. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a pro-cyclical manner for capital flows to EMEs and a counter-cyclical way for the US, triggering a portfolio rebalancing across countries out of emerging markets (EMEs) into US equity and bond funds under QE1, and in the opposite direction under QE2. Second, the impact of Fed operations, such as Treasury and MBS purchases, on portfolio allocations and asset prices dwarfed those of Fed announcements, underlining the importance of the market repair and liquidity functions of Fed policies. Third, we find no evidence that FX or capital account policies helped countries shield themselves from these US policy spillovers, but rather that responses to Fed policies are related to country risk. The results thus illustrate how US monetary policy since 2007 has contributed to portfolio reallocation as well as a re-pricing of risk in global financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Fratzscher, Marcel & Lo Duca, Marco & Straub, Roland, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9195
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Saroj Bhattarai & Arpita Chatterjee & Woong Yong Park, 2015. "Effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies," CAMA Working Papers 2015-47, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," BIS Working Papers 559, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Kerstin Bernoth & Marcel Fratzscher & Philipp König, 2014. "Schwache Preisentwicklung und Deflationsgefahr im Euroraum: Grenzen der konventionellen Geldpolitik," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 81(12), pages 235-249.
    4. Jiaqian Chen & Tommaso Mancini Griffoli & Ratna Sahay, 2014. "Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets; Different This Time?," IMF Working Papers 14/240, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Hangyu Lee, 2014. "International Interest Rate Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 30, pages 217-246.
    6. Alessio Ciarlone & Andrea Colabella, 2016. "Spillovers of the ECB's non-standard monetary policy into CESEE economies," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 34(81), pages 175-190, December.
    7. Rieth, Malte & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2014. "Monetary policy, bank bailouts and the sovereign-bank risk nexus in the euro area," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100277, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Yildirim, Zekeriya, 2016. "Global financial conditions and asset markets: Evidence from fragile emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 208-220.
    9. Kawai, Masahiro, 2015. "International Spillovers of Monetary Policy: US Federal Reserve's Quantitative Easing and Bank of Japan's Quantitative and Qualitative Easing," ADBI Working Papers 512, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Bowman, David & Londono, Juan M. & Sapriza, Horacio, 2015. "U.S. unconventional monetary policy and transmission to emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 27-59.
    11. Yevgeniya Korniyenko & Elena Loukoianova, 2015. "The Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policy Measures by the Systemic Four on Global Liquidity and Monetary Conditions," IMF Working Papers 15/287, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Lucian Liviu ALBU & Radu LUPU & Adrian Cantemir CĂLIN, 2016. "Quantitative Easing, Tapering And Stock Market Indices," ECONOMIC COMPUTATION AND ECONOMIC CYBERNETICS STUDIES AND RESEARCH, Faculty of Economic Cybernetics, Statistics and Informatics, vol. 50(3), pages 5-23.
    13. Marek Lubiński, 2015. "Efekty ponadgraniczne niekonwencjonalnej polityki monetarnej," Gospodarka Narodowa, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 6, pages 5-28.
    14. Christiaan Pattipeilohy, 2016. "A comparative analysis of developments in central bank balance sheet composition," DNB Working Papers 510, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    15. Dong He & Robert N McCauley, 2013. "Transmitting Global Liquidity to East Asia: Policy Rates, Bond Yields, Currencies and Dollar Credit," Working Papers 152013, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    16. Bremus, Franziska & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2015. "Drivers of structural change in cross-border banking since the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 32-59.
    17. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    18. Hernandez Vega Marco A, 2015. "Estimating Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies with Heterogeneous Panels," Working Papers 2015-03, Banco de México.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    capital flows; emerging markets; Federal Reserve; monetary policy; panel data; portfolio choice; quantitative easing; spillovers; United States;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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