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The inflation risk premium in the term structure of interest rates

  • Peter Hördahl

A dynamic term structure model based on an explicit structural macroeconomic framework is used to estimate inflation risk premia in the United States and the euro area. On average over the past decade, inflation risk premia have been relatively small but positive. They have exhibited an increasing pattern with respect to maturity for the euro area and a flatter one for the United States. Furthermore, the estimates imply that risk premia vary over time, mainly in response to fluctuations in economic growth and inflation.

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Article provided by Bank for International Settlements in its journal BIS Quarterly Review.

Volume (Year): (2008)
Issue (Month): (September)
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:0809e
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  1. Jacobs, Mike & Remolona, Eli & Wickens, Michael R., 1998. "What was the Market's View of UK Monetary Policy? Estimating Inflation Risk and Expected Inflation with Indexed Bonds," CEPR Discussion Papers 2022, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Don H. Kim & Jonathan H. Wright, 2005. "An arbitrage-free three-factor term structure model and the recent behavior of long-term yields and distant-horizon forward rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Peter Hordahl & Oreste Tristani & David Vestin, 2004. "A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 48, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Eric Swanson, 2004. "Futures Prices as Risk-adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 10547, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Clarida, Richard & Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 97-32, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  6. Andrew Ang & Monika Piazzesi, 2001. "A No-Arbitrage Vector Autoregression of Term Structure Dynamics with Macroeconomic and Latent Variables," NBER Working Papers 8363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. J. Benson Durham, 2006. "An estimate of the inflation risk premium using a three-factor affine term structure model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Buraschi, Andrea & Jiltsov, Alexei, 2005. "Inflation risk premia and the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 429-490, February.
  9. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2004. "The term structure of real rates and expected inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  10. Martin Evans, 2002. "Real Risk, Inflation Risk, and the Term Structure," Working Papers gueconwpa~02-02-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  11. Qiang Dai & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2000. "Specification Analysis of Affine Term Structure Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(5), pages 1943-1978, October.
  12. Gregory R. Duffee, 2002. "Term Premia and Interest Rate Forecasts in Affine Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 405-443, 02.
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