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When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work

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  • Valentin Winkler

Abstract

This paper studies state-dependent local projections (LPs). First, I establish a general characterization of their estimand: under minimal assumptions, state-dependent LPs recover weighted averages of causal effects. This holds for essentially all specifications used in practice. Second, I show that state-dependent LPs and VARs target different estimands and propose a simple VAR-based estimator whose probability limit equals the LP estimand. Third, in instrumental variable (LP-IV) settings, state-dependent weighting can generate nonzero interaction terms, even when the effects are not state-dependent. Overall, this paper shows how to correctly interpret state-dependent LPs, clarifying their connection to VARs and highlighting a key source of LP-IV misinterpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Valentin Winkler, 2026. "When and Why State-Dependent Local Projections Work," Papers 2601.01622, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2601.01622
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