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Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD

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  • El-Shagi, Makram
  • von Schweinitz, Gregor

Abstract

In this paper, we use local projections to investigate the impact of consolidation shocks on GDP growth, conditional on the fragility of government finances. Based on a database of fiscal plans in OECD countries, we show that spending shocks are less detrimental than tax-based consolidation. In times of fiscal fragility, our results indicate strongly that governments should consolidate through surprise policy changes rather than announcements of consolidation at a later horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:132019
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multipliers; fiscal consolidation; local projections;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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