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Gregor von Schweinitz

Personal Details

First Name:Gregor
Middle Name:
Last Name:von Schweinitz
Suffix:
RePEc Short-ID:pvo153
[This author has chosen not to make the email address public]
http://www.iwh-halle.de/en/about-the-iwh/people/detail/gregor-von-schweinitz/
Terminal Degree:2013 Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH) (from RePEc Genealogy)

Affiliation

Közgazdaságtan Intézet
Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem

Budapest, Hungary
https://www.uni-corvinus.hu/fooldal/egyetemunkrol/intezetek/kozgazdasagtan-intezet/
RePEc:edi:bkeeehu (more details at EDIRC)

Research output

as
Jump to: Working papers Articles

Working papers

  1. von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "The importance of credit demand for business cycle dynamics," IWH Discussion Papers 21/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  2. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  3. Camehl, Annika & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "What explains international interest rate co-movement?," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2023.
  4. Claudio, João C. & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2020. "On the international dissemination of technology news shocks," IWH Discussion Papers 25/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  5. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  6. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2019. "Fiscal Policy and Fiscal Fragility: Evidence from the OECD," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2019/5, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
  7. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  8. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  9. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  10. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.
  11. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?," Working Paper Series 2025, European Central Bank.
  12. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  13. Dany, Geraldine & Gropp, Reint E. & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Germany's Benefit from the Greek Crisis," IWH Online 7/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  14. von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  15. El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  16. von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2013. "Flight Patterns and Yields of European Government Bonds," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2013, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  17. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  18. El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  19. Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

Articles

  1. Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
  2. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  3. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
  4. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.
  5. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
  6. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  7. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
  8. Drygalla, Andrej & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Ćumurović, Aida & Dany, Geraldine & Kim, Chi Hyun & Müller, Juliane, 2017. "22. Spring Meeting of Young Economists in Halle (Saale) - ein Tagungsbericht," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 23(2), pages 41-42.
  9. Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "7. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: "Challenges and Implications of Inflationary Dynamics"," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 23(4), pages 83-83.
  10. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
  11. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor Schweinitz, 2016. "The Diablo 3 Economy: An Agent Based Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 47(2), pages 193-217, February.
  12. Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "6th IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: "(Ending) Unconventional Monetary Policy"," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 22(6), pages 133-133.
  13. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
  14. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Negative Bonitätsbewertungen und Zinsen auf Staatsanleihen – Gibt es einen Teufelskreis?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 21(3), pages 44-47.
  15. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 49-51.
  16. El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Geriet die preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit von Euroraum-Ländern nach Gründung der Währungsunion aus dem Gleichgewicht?," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 20(3), pages 46-49.
  17. Schultz, Birgit & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "4. IWH/INFER-Workshop on Applied Economics and Economic Policy: “A New Fiscal Capacity for the EU?“," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 20(2), pages 30-31.
  18. El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
  19. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
  20. Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Zur Aussagekraft von Frühindikatoren für Staatsschuldkrisen in Europa," Wirtschaft im Wandel, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), vol. 17(10), pages 364-368.

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.

    Mentioned in:

    1. ExIT: reflections of a mainstreamer
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-03-16 22:37:00
    2. L'economia è la continuazione della guerra con altri mezzi (articolati)
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-09-06 12:44:00
  2. Author Profile
    1. L'economia è la continuazione della guerra con altri mezzi (articolati)
      by Alberto Bagnai in Goofynomics on 2017-09-06 12:44:00

Working papers

  1. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Kurlat,Sergio Andres & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Sugawara,Naotaka, 2017. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8157, The World Bank.
    2. Zócimo Campos & Juan Tapia Gertosio & Paulina Natalia Gudaris, 2021. "Country Risk Premium: The Case of Chile," Revista Finanzas y Politica Economica, Universidad Católica de Colombia, vol. 13(2), pages 317-344, September.

  2. Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Schweinitz, Gregor von & Wendt, Katharina, 2018. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," IWH Discussion Papers 8/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Glocker, Christian, 2019. "Do reserve requirements reduce the risk of bank failure?," MPRA Paper 95634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2024. "How to conduct monetary policies. The ECB in the past, present and future," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

  3. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2022. "What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    2. Auer, Raphael & Burstein, Ariel & Erhardt, Katharina & Lein, Sarah, 2020. "Exports and Invoicing: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation," Working papers 2020/14, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.

  4. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Cited by:

    1. Petr Jakubik & Bogdan Gabriel Moinescu, 2023. "What is the optimal capital ratio implying a stable European banking system?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 324-343, December.
    2. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks and financial crisis indicators," Discussion Papers 36/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Aleksei Kipriyanov, 2022. "Comparison of Models for Growth-at-Risk Forecasting," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 81(1), pages 23-45, March.
    4. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau, 2020. "UnFEAR: Unsupervised Feature Extraction Clustering with an Application to Crisis Regimes Classification," IMF Working Papers 2020/262, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2022. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Chris Reimann, 2024. "Predicting financial crises: an evaluation of machine learning algorithms and model explainability for early warning systems," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 51-83, June.
    8. du Plessis, Emile & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2022. "New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 67, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    9. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    10. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2021. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," IMFS Working Paper Series 160, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    11. Bluwstein, Kristina & Buckmann, Marcus & Joseph, Andreas & Kang, Miao & Kapadia, Sujit & Simsek, Özgür, 2020. "Credit growth, the yield curve and financial crisis prediction: evidence from a machine learning approach," Bank of England working papers 848, Bank of England.
    12. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Molina, Luis, 2023. "How to foresee crises? A new synthetic index of vulnerabilities for emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    13. Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
    14. Tarkocin, Coskun & Donduran, Murat, 2024. "Constructing early warning indicators for banks using machine learning models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    15. Denis Shibitov & Mariam Mamedli, 2019. "The finer points of model comparison in machine learning: forecasting based on russian banks’ data," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps43, Bank of Russia.
    16. Hinterlang, Natascha & Hollmayr, Josef, 2020. "Classification of monetary and fiscal dominance regimes using machine learning techniques," Discussion Papers 51/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Umberto Collodel, 2021. "Finding a needle in a haystack: Do Early Warning Systems for Sudden Stops work?," PSE Working Papers halshs-03185520, HAL.
    18. Maria Ludovica Drudi & Stefano Nobili, 2021. "A liquidity risk early warning indicator for Italian banks: a machine learning approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1337, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. Sondermann, David & Zorell, Nico, 2019. "A macroeconomic vulnerability model for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2306, European Central Bank.

  5. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.

    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Bagattini, Giulio & Fecht, Falko & Weber, Patrick, 2019. "The fire-sale channels of universal banks in the European sovereign debt crisis," Discussion Papers 43/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  6. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Optimizing policymakers' loss functions in crisis prediction: before, within or after?," Working Paper Series 2025, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Donato Ceci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2023. "Nowcasting the state of the Italian economy: The role of financial markets," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1569-1593, November.
    3. Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram, 2017. "Dealing with small sample bias in post-crisis samples," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1-8.
    5. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Quentin Bro de Comères, 2022. "Predicting European Banks Distress Events: Do Financial Information Producers Matter?," Working Papers hal-03752678, HAL.
    7. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

  7. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2016. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Discussion Papers 13/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 13/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Julio Cezar Soares Silva & Diogo Ferreira de Lima Silva & Luciano Ferreira & Adiel Teixeira de Almeida-Filho, 2022. "A dominance-based rough set approach applied to evaluate the credit risk of sovereign bonds," 4OR, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 139-164, March.
    4. de Haan, Leo & Vermeulen, Robert, 2021. "Sovereign debt ratings and the country composition of cross-border holdings of euro area sovereign debt," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    5. El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    6. Dumitriu, Ramona & Stefanescu, Răzvan, 2020. "Iluzii financiare, Partea întâi [Financial Illusions, Part 1]," MPRA Paper 101201, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    7. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

  8. Dany, Geraldine & Gropp, Reint E. & Littke, Helge & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Germany's Benefit from the Greek Crisis," IWH Online 7/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Athanasios Orphanides, 2020. "The fiscal–monetary policy mix in the euro area: challenges at the zero lower bound," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(103), pages 461-517.
    2. Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    3. Baumann, Alexendra & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Publikationen von Wirtschaftsforschungsinstituten im deutschsprachigen Raum - Eine bibliometrische Analyse [Publications of Economic Research Insitutes in the German Speaking Area - A bibliometric ," MPRA Paper 92240, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2017. "Central Bank Policies and the Debt Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 11834, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Pablo G. Bortz, 2015. "The Greek "Rescue": Where Did the Money Go? An Analysis," Working Papers Series 29, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    6. Boeing-Reicher, Claire A. & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens, 2017. "Estimating the effects of the "flight to quality", with an application to German bond yields and interest payments," Kiel Working Papers 2086, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    7. Bikramaditya Ghosh & Spyros Papathanasiou & Dimitrios Kenourgios, 2022. "Cross-Country Linkages and Asymmetries of Sovereign Risk Pluralistic Investigation of CDS Spreads," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-10, October.
    8. Ehrhold, Frank & Rahausen, Christian, 2015. "Zinsersparnisse des Bundes im Zeitraum 2009 - 06/2015 und als Szenariobetrachtung bis 2019," Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Diskussionspapiere 02/2015, University of Greifswald, Faculty of Law and Economics.

  9. El-Shagi, Makram & Lindner, Axel & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2014. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2014, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2017. "Neoclassical versus Post-Keynesian Explanations of the Pre-Great Recession Productivity Slowdown: Panel Evidence," a/ Working Papers Series 1704, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Samba Diop & Simplice A. Asongu & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," Working Papers 21/060, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    5. Caccavale, Oscar Maria & Giuffrida, Valerio, 2020. "The Proteus composite index: Towards a better metric for global food security," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Vera Eichenauer & Nauro Campos, 2020. "Close Encounters of the European Kind: Economic Integration, Sectoral Heterogeneity and Structural Reforms," KOF Working papers 20-482, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    7. Aytuğ, Hüseyin, 2017. "Does the reserve options mechanism really decrease exchange rate volatility? The synthetic control method approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 405-416.
    8. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Meixing Dai & Claire Mainguy & Jamel Saadaoui & Moïse Sidiropoulos & Isabelle Terraz & Jamel Trabelsi, 2021. "Towards a more resilient European Union after the COVID-19 crisis," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(2), pages 321-348, June.
    9. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    10. Constantin Colonescu, 2017. "Macroeconomic Effects of the European Monetary Union: A Counterfactual Analysis," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 3(2), pages 171-186, April.
    11. Baccaro, Lucio & D'Antoni, Massimo, 2020. "Has the "external constraint" contributed to Italy's stagnation? A critical event analysis," MPIfG Discussion Paper 20/9, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies.
    12. Razek, Noha H.A. & McQuinn, Brian, 2021. "Saudi Arabia's currency misalignment and international competitiveness, accounting for geopolitical risks and the super-contango oil market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    13. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    14. Buchholz, Manuel & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Tonzer, Lena, 2018. "Did the Swiss exchange rate shock shock the market?," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2018, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Bagnai, Alberto & Granville, Brigitte & Mongeau Ospina, Christian A., 2017. "Withdrawal of Italy from the euro area: Stochastic simulations of a structural macroeconometric model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 524-538.
    16. Hope, David, 2016. "Estimating the effect of the EMU on current account balances: A synthetic control approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 20-40.
    17. Mpho Bosupeng & Janet Dzator & Andrew Nadolny, 2019. "Exchange Rate Misalignment and Capital Flight from Botswana: A Cointegration Approach with Risk Thresholds," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, June.
    18. Baak, SaangJoon, 2017. "Is the yen misaligned more during the Abenomics period?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 26-34.
    19. Florentin Kerschbaumer & Andreas Maschke, 2021. "The Implications of Monetary Union for Income Inequality: An Empirical Assessment," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 47(4), pages 537-574.
    20. Hong Zhuang & Miao Grace Wang & Imre Ersoy & Mesut Eren, 2023. "Does joining the European monetary union improve labor productivity? A synthetic control approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 287-306, June.
    21. Puzzello, Laura & Gomis-Porqueras, Pedro, 2018. "Winners and losers from the €uro," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 129-152.
    22. Börger, Carina & Kempa, Bernd, 2024. "Real exchange rate convergence in the euro area: Evidence from a dynamic factor model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 213-224.
    23. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.

  10. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Qual VAR Revisited: Good Forecast, Bad Story," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Michael W. McCracken & Joseph McGillicuddy & Michael T. Owyang, 2019. "Binary Conditional Forecasts," Working Papers 2019-029, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Apr 2021.
    2. Aßhoff, Sina & Belke, Ansgar & Osowski, Thomas, 2021. "Unconventional monetary policy and inflation expectations in the Euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).

  11. El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Early Warning System of Government Debt Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1724, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. Sarlin, Peter, 2013. "On policymakers' loss function and the evaluation of early warning systems," Working Paper Series 1509, European Central Bank.
    4. Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2019. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: PLS Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2019-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Martina Kämpfe & Tobias Knedlik, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139, February.
    7. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    8. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    9. Yamarik, Steven & El-Shagi, Makram & Yamashiro, Guy, 2016. "Does inequality lead to credit growth? Testing the Rajan hypothesis using state-level data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 63-67.
    10. Hyeongwoo Kim & Kyunghwan Ko, 2017. "Improving Forecast Accuracy of Financial Vulnerability: Partial Least Squares Factor Model Approach," Working Papers 2017-14, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    11. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2013. "Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79935, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shi, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting Financial Vulnerability in the US: A Factor Model Approach," MPRA Paper 89766, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
    14. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
    15. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    16. Tomáš Domonkos & Filip Ostrihoň & Ivana Šikulová & Maria Širaňová, 2016. "Analyzing macroeconomic imbalances in the EU," EcoMod2016 9660, EcoMod.
    17. Knedlik, Tobias, 2013. "The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. El-Shagi, Makram & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Yamarik, Steven, 2020. "Inequality and credit growth in Russian regions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 550-558.
    19. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Market Vulnerability in the U.S.: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    20. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    21. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gang-Jin Wang & Askery Canabarro & Boris Podobnik & Chi Xie & H. Eugene Stanley & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2016. "Short term prediction of extreme returns based on the recurrence interval analysis," Papers 1610.08230, arXiv.org.
    22. Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
    23. von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.
    25. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    26. Knedlik, Tobias, 2014. "The impact of preferences on early warning systems — The case of the European Commission's Scoreboard," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 157-166.
    27. Tsionas, Mike G. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel & Ongena, Steven, 2020. "Does risk aversion affect bank output loss? The case of the Eurozone," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1127-1145.
    28. Stefan Eichler, 2017. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, August.

  12. Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2011. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," IWH Discussion Papers 12/2011, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2018. "Early Warning System of Government Debt Crises," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1724, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    3. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," IWH Discussion Papers 2/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Claudia M. Buch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2014. "Do we need new modelling approaches in macroeconomics?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 3, pages 36-58, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Martina Kämpfe & Tobias Knedlik, 2021. "The appropriateness of the macroeconomic imbalance procedure for Central and Eastern European Countries," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 123-139, February.
    6. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    7. Sarlin, Peter & Holopainen, Markus, 2016. "Toward robust early-warning models: a horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 1900, European Central Bank.
    8. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2013. "Liquidity in the Liquidity Crisis: Evidence from Divisia Monetary Aggregates in Germany and the European Crisis Countries," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79935, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    9. Catarina Lourenço Soares & Adelaide Maria de Sousa Figueiredo & Fernanda Otília de Sousa Figueiredo, 2014. "Analysis of Public, Private and Financial Sectors in European Countries Through the Statis Methodology," FEP Working Papers 541, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    10. El-Shagi, Makram & Kelly, Logan, 2019. "What can we learn from country-level liquidity in the EMU?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 75-83.
    11. Popescu, Alexandra & Turcu, Camelia, 2017. "Sovereign debt and systemic risk in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 275-284.
    12. El-Shagi, Makram & Knedlik, Tobias & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2012. "Predicting Financial Crises: The (Statistical) Significance of the Signals Approach," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Optimizing Policymakers' Loss Functions in Crisis Prediction: Before, Within or After?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    14. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Plödt, Martin & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim & Schwarzmüller, Tim, 2015. "Das europäische Verfahren zur Vermeidung und Korrektur makroökonomischer Ungleichgewichte: Auswertung der bisherigen Erfahrung und mögliche Reformansätze," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    15. Allado, Armin Paul & Lim, Lance Nicklaus & Tulauan, Nerie Angeli & Abreu, Marvin Kyle & Agabin, Patricia Louise & Regio, Joaquin Charles, 2022. "Construction of an Index Tracker for Debt Sustainability Assessment in the Philippines," ADBI Working Papers 1339, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    16. Knedlik, Tobias, 2013. "The European Commission's Scoreboard of Macroeconomic Imbalances: The impact of preferences on an early warning system," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80028, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    17. Wenting Zhang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2020. "Do Machine Learning Techniques and Dynamic Methods Help Forecast US Natural Gas Crises?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-22, May.
    18. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "The German Model and the European Crisis," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(6), pages 1023-1039, November.
    19. Dermot Hodson, 2013. "The Eurozone in 2012: ‘Whatever It Takes to Preserve the Euro'?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51, pages 183-200, September.
    20. Creel, Jérôme & Hubert, Paul & Saraceno, Francesco, 2012. "The European Fiscal Compact: A Counterfactual Assessment," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 537-563.
    21. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    22. Luiza APOSTOL, 2014. "A Set of Ten Relevant Statistical Indicators of Romania’s External Debt Today," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 62(1), pages 67-78, January.
    23. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    24. Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
    25. von Schweinitz, Gregor & Sarlin, Peter, 2015. "Signaling Crises: How to Get Good Out-of-Sample Performance Out of the Early Warning System," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112964, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    26. Jarmulska, Barbara, 2020. "Random forest versus logit models: which offers better early warning of fiscal stress?," Working Paper Series 2408, European Central Bank.
    27. Panayotis Michaelides & Mike Tsionas & Panos Xidonas, 2020. "A Bayesian Signals Approach for the Detection of Crises," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(3), pages 551-585, September.
    28. Markus Holopainen & Peter Sarlin, 2015. "Toward robust early-warning models: A horse race, ensembles and model uncertainty," Papers 1501.04682, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    29. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2012. "Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufwind – Europäische Schuldenkrise schwelt weiter," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(08), pages 03-72, April.
    30. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2014. "Gemeinschaftsdiagnose Frühjahr 2014: Deutsche Konjunktur im Aufschwung – aber Gegenwind von der Wirtschaftspolitik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(08), pages 03-64, April.
    31. Knedlik, Tobias, 2014. "The impact of preferences on early warning systems — The case of the European Commission's Scoreboard," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 157-166.
    32. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    33. Stefan Eichler, 2017. "How Do Political Factors Shape the Bank Risk–Sovereign Risk Nexus in Emerging Markets?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 451-474, August.

Articles

  1. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2021. "Fiscal policy and fiscal fragility: Empirical evidence from the OECD," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Sarlin, Peter & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2021. "Optimizing Policymakers’ Loss Functions In Crisis Prediction: Before, Within Or After?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 100-123, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Gregor von Schweinitz & Lena Tonzer & Manuel Buchholz, 2021. "Monetary policy through exchange rate pegs: The removal of the Swiss franc‐Euro floor and stock price reactions," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(4), pages 1382-1406, December.

    Cited by:

    1. Anna Bykhovskaya & James A. Duffy, 2022. "The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model," Papers 2210.02599, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.

  4. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & von Schweinitz, Gregor & Wendt, Katharina, 2019. "On the empirics of reserve requirements and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 253-274.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).

    Cited by:

    1. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
    2. Chau, Michael & Lin, Chih-Yung & Lin, Tse-Chun, 2020. "Wisdom of crowds before the 2007–2009 global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    3. Bitetto, Alessandro & Cerchiello, Paola & Mertzanis, Charilaos, 2023. "On the efficient synthesis of short financial time series: A Dynamic Factor Model approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    4. Nakatani, Ryota, 2020. "Macroprudential Policy and the Probability of a Banking Crisis," MPRA Paper 101157, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Wang, Peiwan & Zong, Lu, 2023. "Does machine learning help private sectors to alarm crises? Evidence from China’s currency market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 611(C).
    7. Doumpos, Michalis & Zopounidis, Constantin & Gounopoulos, Dimitrios & Platanakis, Emmanouil & Zhang, Wenke, 2023. "Operational research and artificial intelligence methods in banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(1), pages 1-16.
    8. Ademmer, Martin & Beckmann, Joscha & Bode, Eckhardt & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Funke, Manuel & Hauber, Philipp & Heidland, Tobias & Hinz, Julian & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Söder, Mareike & Stame, 2021. "Big Data in der makroökonomischen Analyse," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 32, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Chris Reimann, 2024. "Predicting financial crises: an evaluation of machine learning algorithms and model explainability for early warning systems," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 51-83, June.
    10. Alexey Ponomarenko & Stas Tatarintsev, 2020. "Incorporating financial development indicators into early warning systems," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps58, Bank of Russia.
    11. Li Xian Liu & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2021. "Predicting Bank Failures: A Synthesis of Literature and Directions for Future Research," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-24, October.
    12. Grodecka, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2018. "Predictors of Bank Distress: The 1907 Crisis in Sweden," Lund Papers in Economic History 180, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    13. Zongxin Zhang & Ying Chen, 2022. "Tail Risk Early Warning System for Capital Markets Based on Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 901-923, October.
    14. Bui, Dien Giau & Chen, Yan-Shing & Hsu, Hsing-Hua & Lin, Chih-Yung, 2020. "Labor unions and bank risk culture: evidence from the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    15. Beutel, Johannes & Metiu, Norbert & Stockerl, Valentin, 2021. "Toothless tiger with claws? Financial stability communication, expectations, and risk-taking," Discussion Papers 05/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Hristov, Nikolay & Roth, Markus, 2022. "Uncertainty shocks and systemic-risk indicators," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Kristóf, Tamás & Virág, Miklós, 2022. "EU-27 bank failure prediction with C5.0 decision trees and deep learning neural networks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    18. Casabianca, Elizabeth Jane & Catalano, Michele & Forni, Lorenzo & Giarda, Elena & Passeri, Simone, 2022. "A machine learning approach to rank the determinants of banking crises over time and across countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    19. Hartwig, Benny & Meinerding, Christoph & Schüler, Yves S., 2021. "Identifying indicators of systemic risk," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    20. Susanna Levantesi & Gabriella Piscopo, 2020. "The Importance of Economic Variables on London Real Estate Market: A Random Forest Approach," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-17, October.
    21. Lanbiao Liu & Chen Chen & Bo Wang, 2022. "Predicting financial crises with machine learning methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(5), pages 871-910, August.
    22. Magnus Saß, 2024. "Detecting excessive credit growth: An approach based on structural counterfactuals," Berlin School of Economics Discussion Papers 0046, Berlin School of Economics.
    23. du Plessis, Emile, 2022. "Multinomial modeling methods: Predicting four decades of international banking crises," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 46(2).
    24. Mauro Paoloni & Massimiliano Celli, 2023. "The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Eurozone: A Reconnaissance of E.U. Financial Assistance to Counteract the Coronavirus’s Perfect Storm," International Journal of Business and Management, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 16(7), pages 1-72, February.
    25. Huynh, Tran & Uebelmesser, Silke, 2024. "Early warning models for systemic banking crises: Can political indicators improve prediction?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    26. Pham, Xuan T.T. & Ho, Tin H., 2021. "Using boosting algorithms to predict bank failure: An untold story," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 40-54.
    27. Leonard Sabetti & Ronald Heijmans, 2020. "Shallow or deep? Detecting anomalous flows in the Canadian Automated Clearing and Settlement System using an autoencoder," Working Papers 681, DNB.
    28. Truong, Chi & Sheen, Jeffrey & Trück, Stefan & Villafuerte, James, 2022. "Early warning systems using dynamic factor models: An application to Asian economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    29. Tölö, Eero, 2020. "Predicting systemic financial crises with recurrent neural networks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    30. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Otto, Tizian, 2023. "Forecasting Stock Market Crashes via Machine Learning," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    31. Metiu, Norbert, 2022. "A composite indicator of financial conditions for Germany," Technical Papers 03/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    32. Antulov-Fantulin, Nino & Lagravinese, Raffaele & Resce, Giuliano, 2021. "Predicting bankruptcy of local government: A machine learning approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 681-699.
    33. Sreenivasulu Puli & Nagaraju Thota & A. C. V. Subrahmanyam, 2024. "Assessing Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Banking Crises in India," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(4), pages 1-16, March.

  6. El-Shagi, Makram & Schweinitz, Gregor von, 2018. "The joint dynamics of sovereign ratings and government bond yields," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 198-218.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Makram El-Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Qual VAR revisited: Good forecast, bad story," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 19, pages 293-322, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "Risk and return—Is there an unholy cycle of ratings and yields?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 49-51.

    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Makram El‐Shagi & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2022. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of sovereign bond ratings and their timing," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 186-224, May.
    3. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2017. "Why they keep missing: An empirical investigation of rational inattention of rating agencies," IWH Discussion Papers 1/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2017.
    4. El-Shagi, Makram, 2016. "Much ado about nothing: Sovereign ratings and government bond yields in the OECD," IWH Discussion Papers 22/2016, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

  10. El-Shagi, M. & Knedlik, T. & von Schweinitz, G., 2013. "Predicting financial crises: The (statistical) significance of the signals approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 76-103.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.

More information

Research fields, statistics, top rankings, if available.

Statistics

Access and download statistics for all items

Co-authorship network on CollEc

NEP Fields

NEP is an announcement service for new working papers, with a weekly report in each of many fields. This author has had 12 papers announced in NEP. These are the fields, ordered by number of announcements, along with their dates. If the author is listed in the directory of specialists for this field, a link is also provided.
  1. NEP-MAC: Macroeconomics (6) 2018-05-14 2018-06-18 2019-06-10 2019-06-24 2020-12-21 2024-01-29. Author is listed
  2. NEP-OPM: Open Economy Macroeconomics (3) 2016-07-23 2020-12-21 2023-04-10
  3. NEP-BAN: Banking (2) 2018-05-14 2024-01-29
  4. NEP-BIG: Big Data (2) 2019-01-14 2019-01-28
  5. NEP-CBA: Central Banking (2) 2018-05-14 2023-04-10
  6. NEP-CMP: Computational Economics (2) 2019-01-14 2019-01-28
  7. NEP-ECM: Econometrics (2) 2016-02-17 2017-03-12
  8. NEP-EEC: European Economics (2) 2019-06-10 2019-06-24
  9. NEP-FDG: Financial Development and Growth (2) 2018-05-14 2024-01-29
  10. NEP-PBE: Public Economics (2) 2019-06-10 2019-06-24
  11. NEP-DCM: Discrete Choice Models (1) 2019-01-28
  12. NEP-HIS: Business, Economic and Financial History (1) 2019-01-14
  13. NEP-MON: Monetary Economics (1) 2023-04-10
  14. NEP-PUB: Public Finance (1) 2019-06-24
  15. NEP-RMG: Risk Management (1) 2016-02-17

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