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Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Makram El-Shagi
  • Axel Lindner
  • Gregor von Schweinitz

Abstract

Were real effective exchange rates (REER) of Euro area member countries drastically misaligned at the outbreak of the global financial crisis? The answer is difficult to determine because economic theory gives no simple guideline for determining the equilibrium values of real exchange rates, and the determinants of those values might have been distorted as well. To overcome these limitations, we use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member as a linear combination of a large set of non-Euro area countries. We find that Euro area crisis countries are best described by a mixture of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual REER with those of the counterfactuals gives sensible estimates of the misalignments at the start of the crisis: All peripheral countries were strongly overvalued, while high undervaluation is only observed for Finland.
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Suggested Citation

  • Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:24:y:2016:i:1:p:37-66
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/roie.12207
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2015. "The Joint Dynamics of Sovereign Ratings and Government Bond Yields," IWH Discussion Papers 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:405-416 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Fidora, Michael & Giordano, Claire & Schmitz, Martin, 2017. "Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2108, European Central Bank.
    4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    6. repec:eee:japwor:v:44:y:2017:i:c:p:26-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research Department, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
    8. repec:cnb:ocpubv:as17 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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